4.9 Gold Induces Bullish Rebound with Repeated Tug-of-War, Break Below 4700 Still the Main Strategy

Market Review:

Yesterday, gold prices opened with a slight rally supported by the previous trading day's rebound momentum. The price briefly touched 4857 before gradually facing resistance and pulling back, closing at 4714. The final candlestick was a long-bodied medium bearish candle, with the body covering most of the previous day's bullish gains, effectively ending the three consecutive days of upward rally. This clearly signals that short-term bullish momentum is waning and the market is beginning to shift into a consolidation and correction phase.

On the 4-hour chart, MA5/MA10 have turned downward, while MA20 remains upward, indicating a correction within an overall upward trend. The bullish trend remains intact, but short-term bears are dominating. MACD has formed a death cross above the zero line, with the green bars continuing to expand, indicating ongoing bearish momentum release. RSI is running in the 40-45 range, in a neutral to weak zone, not yet reaching oversold levels, suggesting that the downside space is not fully closed. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with prices moving along the lower band, indicating that rebound momentum is severely lacking.

On the 1-hour chart, although a small technical rebound is expected, the lack of volume greatly limits the rebound strength. MA5 and MA10 are closely aligned and flat, reflecting a temporary balance between bulls and bears. The previous one-sided downtrend has ended temporarily but without a reversal signal. Key resistance is focused on the 4760-4780 zone. If prices cannot effectively stabilize above 4760, the short-term weakness is unlikely to reverse. Attention should be paid to the support at the 4700 level; if it is broken decisively, a new downtrend will be confirmed, with downside targets around 4680-4650.

Overall, the current market is in a low-level consolidation and correction phase, with a weak rebound and gradually decreasing highs. Bullish momentum is severely lacking, and the main trading strategy is to sell on rallies.

Gold Trading Strategy: Short at 4750-4760 zone with a stop-loss at 4770, target at the 4700 level.

If the price effectively breaks below 4700 support and stabilizes around 4680-4670, consider long positions with a stop-loss at 4760, targeting the 4700-4730 range.

Disclaimer: The above content is for personal ideas and opinions sharing only and does not constitute trading advice.