U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, Chinese Central Bank Continues Gold Purchases, Gold Returns to $4,800 per Ounce!

——Gold Stock ETF (517400) / Mining ETF (561330) / Gold ETF (518800) Surges: Commentary 0408

On Wednesday, news of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. took effect, and both sides agreed to begin negotiations on April 10. Market risk appetite rebounded significantly, and international gold prices staged a strong rebound, returning above the $4,800 per ounce level. Gold Stock ETF (517400), Mining ETF (561330), and Gold ETF (518800) all surged in tandem.

The core drivers behind the collective strength across the gold sector this time:

1⃣ Geopolitical easing + liquidity repair. The Middle East conflict cooled in the short term, expectations for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz were restored, and the period of forced selling caused by prior liquidity shocks came to an end. Gold has returned from a “liquidation asset” to the main theme of safe-haven demand and protection against inflation.

2⃣ Rate-cut expectations rise. U.S. federal funds futures are broadly higher today; the December contract rose by 14 basis points, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts within the year are heating up.

3⃣ Structural support from central bank gold purchases. China’s central bank has increased its gold holdings for 17 consecutive months. Global central banks were still net buyers of gold in March. The Eurozone is the main force behind gold buying, and the incremental amount far exceeds the amount of reductions in holdings by certain individual countries such as Turkey. Sovereign buying provides a solid bottom for gold prices.

In the short term, the market is still watching developments in the Iran-U.S. negotiations, and gold’s volatility remains elevated. But the intense swings driven by sentiment and liquidity have clearly narrowed. The logic for gold’s short-, medium-, and long-term allocation is further strengthened: the de-dollarization trend continues; global central banks keep buying gold; and gold’s value as a core tool for hedging currency depreciation and credit risk remains undiminished.

Related products:

?#Gold ETF (518800): Closely tracks gold prices

?#Gold Stock ETF (517400): May have higher earnings leverage properties

?#Mining ETF (561330): Focuses on upstream exposure—there’s gold at home

(Risk Warning: Current gold price volatility remains high, and there is still a risk of pullbacks at different stages. Short-term gains and losses in indexes and other measures are for reference only and do not represent their future performance, nor do they constitute any promise or guarantee regarding fund performance. Views may be adjusted as market conditions change and do not constitute investment advice or a commitment. The risk-and-return characteristics of funds differ; investors are kindly advised to carefully read the fund legal documents, fully understand product features, risk grades, and the principles of return distribution, choose products that match their own risk tolerance, and invest cautiously.)

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