The current market backdrop is actually quite clear: four groups of people, four mindsets, holding the same 70,000 USDT Bitcoin.

Saylor said directly at a Miami dinner last night that BTC has already bottomed out at 60,000 in February. On the same day, a report from JPMorgan was more realistic: that 11 billion in capital inflow into the crypto market in Q1 is basically supported by him alone.
ETFs are seeing net outflows, VC firms are pulling back, and companies are in watch-and-wait mode—leaving him to issue preferred shares on one hand and hard-buy BTC on the other. One person is shouting “the bottom is in” at a high-end dinner; another, based on institutional data, has become the only one still buying, buying, buying.
Putting those two headlines together is a bit heartbreaking. BTC 70700, the fear index 14, extreme fear. Options market traders are betting on breaking below the level, leveraged longs are still high, and positions are fragile—basically, smart money is betting that Saylor is wrong.
But when you look on-chain, it’s completely different: between 60,000 and 70,000 this year, so far they have accumulated 1.845 million BTC, which is 840,000 more BTC than at the beginning of the year. Someone is consistently picking up the dip, and it’s a large number of people. It’s just that they didn’t go to the dinner; no one is publishing research reports for them; and no one is shouting slogans for them.
So the real market looks like this: - Saylor on stage shouting that the bottom is in - the options desk people laughing at him for being too optimistic - the silent on-chain buyers quietly accumulating 840,000 coins without saying a word - retail investors at their most panicked turning off the app and not daring to look Four groups of people, four worlds, the same 70K. I’ve seen scenes like this several times. Either a small number of people call the bottom and get mocked by the market, only for the trend to slap everyone in the face a few months later; or they call the bottom and it keeps falling, getting ground underfoot—then, half a year or a year later, looking back, you realize they were actually right, just a bit early. I don’t know which one this time Saylor falls into. His company’s situation is there for all to see—he needs BTC to go up more than anyone else.
Whether you believe his “bottom” call or not is up to your own judgment. But what I want to say isn’t about Saylor. It’s that those 1.845 million BTC are the market’s real backdrop. Not dinner speeches, not options games, not institutional research reports. It’s a group of people you don’t know, on the days when the fear index is 14, quietly withdrawing coins from exchanges. They don’t have microphones, they don’t have fans—just buying little by little at the prices they think are cheap. I and the friends around me are among them too. When it drops, we set up recurring buys: small dips get small adds; big dips get bigger adds—around 55,000, it’ll be even more decisive. Geopolitical tensions keep coming and going, with the news pulling the narrative back and forth.
Saylor buys where he’s standing; we buy where we are standing—and those tens of hundreds of thousands of silent buyers are buying too. In the end, it’s not that important who’s right or wrong. After all, we’re all here. Panic will always pass.