The U.S. and Iran send signals of easing, precious metals surge, and crude oil plummets straight down.

On April 1, the domestic commodity futures market in China saw a sharply diverging trend. Precious metals led the gains, the energy chemicals sector plunged. Shanghai silver rose by more than 5%, palladium rose by more than 3%, and Shanghai gold rose by more than 2%. In terms of declines, crude oil once fell by more than 11%, fuel oil and the European containerized shipping index (Europe line) both fell by more than 4%.

On the news front, last night the US and Iran released signals of a willingness to end the war. According to CCTV News, Iranian President Pezeshkian said that Iran is willing to end the war, but the condition is that its demands are met—especially guarantees that it will not be subjected to aggression again.

Also, according to Xinhua News Agency, on the evening of March 31, US President Trump said at the White House that the US would end hostilities against Iran within “two to three weeks,” and there may be an agreement reached with Iran before that.

A latest research report from Shenwan Hongyuan said that the US-Iran conflict is releasing signals of easing, and the short-term factors that suppress precious metals have been alleviated. From the medium- to long-term perspective, the center of precious metals prices will continue to move upward. On the one hand, the geopolitical risk center is being lifted, and the restructuring of the global political and economic order is still ongoing; on the other hand, market concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy are still intensifying, and at the same time Trump is frequently intervening in the independence of the Federal Reserve, so the de-dollarization process will continue to advance, and global central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves. The long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Silver, platinum, and palladium—driven by the resonance between their industrial attributes and financial attributes—will follow the overall sector trend, but with relatively larger volatility.

However, Shenwan Hongyuan also reminded investors to be wary that (US-Iran) this is only “talk” of de-escalation. If in the coming weeks there is no substantive progress in negotiations or if the conflict unexpectedly escalates, there remains the risk that oil prices will surge again. In terms of trading, investors should keep a close eye on diplomatic feedback between the US and Iran and the movements of US ground forces.

In fact, according to CCTV News, local time from March 30 to 31, while the US and Iran on both sides released signals of de-escalation, Tehran, the capital of Iran, was hit by multiple rounds of airstrikes. Explosions occurred at multiple locations and caused temporary power outages in some areas. In addition, explosions were also reported in multiple places such as Abadan Port and Qeshm Island in southern Iran. Moreover, the tense situation in southern Iran is also continuously escalating. An official from Iran’s Ministry of Health said that the US and Israel’s attack on Qeshm Island—Iran’s largest island—completely paralyzed a local seawater desalination plant, which cannot be repaired in the short term.

In addition, according to CCTV News, the US Nimitz-class aircraft carrier “Bush” and its accompanying carrier strike fleet are deploying to the Middle East. The aircraft carrier will join up with the “Lincoln” and “Ford” aircraft carrier strike groups, which means the US may deploy three aircraft carriers in the region at the same time. Also, according to US officials, thousands of soldiers from the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, including its rapid response forces, have begun arriving in the Middle East.

A latest research report from Southwest Futures also said that the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually easing, and some ships have passed through, but the geopolitical conflict has not ended, and crude oil prices still fluctuate. Additionally, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) net long positions in futures and options for (CFTC) have increased, indicating that US funds are optimistic about the outlook for crude oil. With oil prices far above costs, US shale oil producers are reducing the number of drilling rigs, which provides support to oil prices.

(Statement: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors act at their own risk.)