The Strait of Hormuz "reopens and closes again," with oil prices swinging between hope and fear

International crude oil prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Wednesday, driven by market reassessment of the Middle East situation following recent ceasefire. Brent crude and WTI crude are trading above $98.70 and $96.70 respectively, with price volatility intense due to market doubts about the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement.
Although the ceasefire temporarily eased initial concerns about global supply disruptions, ongoing attacks and logistical issues still make traders cautious. This indicates that the oil market is highly susceptible to geopolitical changes in key supply corridor regions.
The recent decline in oil prices was mainly based on market expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. However, shipping companies still need to wait for concrete guarantees before resuming operations, so global supply will not recover immediately. Moreover, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again early Thursday, and in the short term, crude oil seems unable to flow normally. Even if the strait reopens shortly, safety concerns, high insurance costs, and operational restrictions will continue to limit oil supply flow. Therefore, the actual increase in oil supply is unlikely to happen quickly, providing short-term support for oil prices.
Tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices volatile and uncertain. The ceasefire faces increasing pressure due to ongoing conflicts in the region. The conflict between Israel and Lebanon indicates that many issues remain unresolved. Attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure could further exacerbate oil price fluctuations. This persistent uncertainty creates a fragile environment for oil pricing—any escalation of tensions and subsequent disruptions in oil transportation routes could lead to rising prices; conversely, easing tensions and resumption of international shipping might put downward pressure on prices, even breaking below $90. Currently, oil prices are mainly influenced by the ceasefire process and uncertainties regarding the security outlook of energy infrastructure.
(The above analysis is from analyst Muhammad Umair's report on April 9, for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.)#Gate广场四月发帖挑战