$GT The US and Israel have been fighting Iran for over a month; neither side can kill the other, nor can they retreat. They just reached a temporary two-week ceasefire, but Israel is not being honest and is still fighting.

2. The most likely scenario in the next three months (three possible outcomes, from highest to lowest probability)

1. Highest probability: Fighting while negotiating → Long-term low-intensity attrition war (70%)

- The US does not want a full-scale war (fears casualties, fears oil prices soaring, fears domestic elections)
- Iran is not afraid to fight (has many missiles, complex terrain,全民抵抗)
- Israel is the most radical, secretly continuing to attack Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon
- The result is:
- Occasional mutual bombings (missiles, drones)
- Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz → Oil prices surge
- Middle East chaos, but no world war outbreak

2. Second most probable: Ceasefire expires in two weeks → Large-scale fighting resumes (20%)

- The US’s demands are too high (pressuring Iran to abandon nuclear weapons, disarmament)
- Iran will never accept (this is the bottom line)
- When the ceasefire ends, bombing resumes directly
- Iran will fully blockade the strait, attack Israeli ports and energy facilities

3. Low probability: Negotiated limited agreement → Temporary ceasefire (10%)

- The US makes concessions: not forcing Iran to fully abandon nuclear weapons
- Iran makes concessions: suspending nuclear tests, opening inspections
- Israel strongly opposes, continuing to attack Iran alone (the most troublesome variable)

3. Key points to watch (you should focus on these three things)

1. Will Israel stop?
Israel is the biggest powder keg; as long as it doesn’t stop, the war cannot end.
2. Will the Strait of Hormuz be sealed?
If Iran blocks it, global oil prices will immediately soar, and the US will panic.
3. Will Lebanon and Yemen get involved?
Once Hezbollah and Houthi fully participate, it will be a full-scale Middle East war.

4. The ultimate one-sentence prediction

It will not escalate into war.