Is It Time To Reconsider NICE (TASE:NICE) After Its Sharp Share Price Slide

Simply Wall St

Tue, February 17, 2026 at 12:12 PM GMT+9 5 min read

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NICE

-2.02%

NCSYF

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If you are wondering whether NICE is now a mispriced bargain or still a value trap, you are in the right place for a clear look at what the current share price might imply.

The stock last closed at US$310, with returns of a 9.2% decline over the past week, a 14.9% decline over the past month, and a 14.7% decline year to date. The 1 year, 3 year and 5 year returns stand at a 50.0% decline, a 59.9% decline and a 61.1% decline respectively.

Recent news around NICE has largely focused on its role as a software provider and how investors are reassessing the risks and potential of that exposure. This helps frame the sharp pullback in the share price. Together, these headlines have kept attention on whether expectations had become too optimistic earlier, or if sentiment has now swung too far the other way.

NICE currently scores 5 out of 6 on our valuation checks, as shown in our valuation score. Next, we will walk through what that means across different valuation methods, before finishing with a simpler way to keep on top of valuation that many investors find even more useful.

Find out why NICE’s -50.0% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

Approach 1: NICE Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to the present.

For NICE, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on current last twelve month free cash flow of about US$684.4 million. Analyst estimates are available for several years ahead, and Simply Wall St then extends those projections further, with ten year free cash flow forecasts ranging from roughly US$611.4 million in 2026 to US$1,441.2 million in 2035, all in US$.

By discounting these projected cash flows back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about US$691.21 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$310, this indicates the stock is trading at a 55.2% discount on this cash flow based view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests NICE is undervalued by 55.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 221 more high quality undervalued stocks.

NICE Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NICE.

Approach 2: NICE Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings, which is why it is the preferred multiple here.

Story Continues  

What counts as a reasonable P/E really depends on how the market views the company’s growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually calls for a lower one.

NICE currently trades on a P/E of 11.0x. That sits below the Software industry average of 24.6x and also below the peer group average of 35.3x. On the surface, that points to a lower earnings multiple compared with many similar companies.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for NICE is 13.9x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as the company’s earnings profile, its industry, profit margins, market value and risk characteristics. Because it adjusts for these company specific drivers rather than just comparing with broad group averages, it can be a more tailored benchmark.

With the current P/E of 11.0x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 13.9x, NICE screens as undervalued on this earnings based view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

TASE:NICE P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 104 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NICE Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. This is where you connect your view of a company’s story with your own assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins to arrive at a personal fair value, all within Simply Wall St’s Community page that is used by millions of investors.

A Narrative links what you believe about NICE, such as how AI driven solutions, cloud partnerships or margin risks might play out, to a financial forecast and then to a fair value. You can then compare that fair value with the current price and decide whether you see the stock as attractive or not based on your own framework.

Because Narratives on Simply Wall St update as new information comes in, such as earnings or news on AI regulation or cloud churn, your fair value view can shift with the facts rather than staying locked to a static model.

For example, one NICE Narrative on the Community page currently assumes revenue growth of 8.5% a year, margins rising from 18.9% to 20.4% and a 2028 P/E of 23.8x to support a fair value of ₪750.02. Another could reasonably lean on the lower 2028 earnings estimate of US$651.7m and a more cautious P/E to reach a very different valuation.

Do you think there’s more to the story for NICE? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

TASE:NICE 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NICE.TA.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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