The market didn’t lose rate cuts by accident

It lost them to oil 👇
Before the Iran conflict multiple cuts were expected
Now that outlook has shrunk to just one.
Not because the Fed turned hawkish, but because inflation risk came back through energy.
Oil pushing toward $115 forced the Fed to stay cautious
At 3% inflation, they’re already above target. Higher energy prices only delay any move toward easing.
But here’s the shift
The Fed doesn’t see this as long-term inflation. More like a temporary shock.
And the ceasefire changed things quickly.
Oil dropped below $95, which immediately eases pressure.
If prices stay stable, inflation should follow. That opens the door for earlier cuts again.
Now it comes down to data.
If CPI starts cooling, expectations will move forward. If oil spikes again, cuts get pushed out.
Nothing is confirmed yet.
The war delayed cuts.
The next move in oil decides what happens next.