Iranian conflict pauses; Hormuz "toll fee" becomes the focus of the game theory.

Middle Eastern conflicts have pressed the pause button, and the control over the world’s major shipping arteries has become the next focal point of competition. The Strait of Hormuz is still far from a calm, peaceful scene.

The strait lies between Iran and Oman and is the only maritime passage from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. The key mediator in this round—Pakistan—and other Arab countries are all parties with a stake. It is also the strategic energy route through which countries across Asia and Europe rely to survive.

Although nearly all of its main deep-water navigable area falls within Oman’s territorial waters, Iran has full control and, over the past several decades, has paid enormous costs to safeguard the security of the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the high seas or exclusive economic zones and is a typical international strait. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea provides that coastal states may not arbitrarily restrict passage or levy transit fees. But Iran has not formally approved the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and therefore argues that it is not bound by “transit passage rights.” The United States has also not formally approved this law.

Under the ceasefire terms most recently put forward by Iran, all parties would formulate a security transit agreement for the Strait of Hormuz to ensure Iran’s leading position.

In addition, unverified reports say that Iran allows limited ships under its supervision to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The country will charge fees to ships transiting there in cooperation with Oman, for a period of two weeks.

In addition, Iran has also pledged not to develop nuclear weapons. From Iran’s perspective, the power of the Strait of Hormuz card is even greater than that of nuclear weapons.

A maritime analytics firm, VesselsValue, headquartered in the UK, says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz has shifted to a “dual-channel system”—a northern route controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and a new southern route along the Oman coastline.

As early as March 30, Iran’s National Security Council passed a bill to charge ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The contents include implementing financial arrangements and a fee system in the form of Iranian rials, as well as maintaining the dominant position of armed forces such as the IRGC.

U.S. intelligence has recently issued further warnings that Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is the only bargaining chip in Iran’s hands that can counterbalance the United States. Even after the war ends, Iran will still need to use the collection of transit fees to rebuild.

Since February 28, the reciprocal attacks between the U.S. and Iran have lasted for 40 days. The enormous destructive power has caused severe damage to Iran’s large-scale infrastructure.

According to assessments from multiple sides, if the war comes to an end here and now, Iran’s reconstruction costs could reach $200 billion–$250 billion, including spending on housing, commercial and public facilities, and energy and transportation systems. Iran has already filed compensation demands to the United States regarding this.

It is understood that during this round of war, Iran has set up a toll-booth-based management system. Shipowners or their countries need to submit specific background information through intermediaries and pay fees. The fee forms include cash, cryptocurrencies, and the release of frozen Iranian assets.

As of the time of this article’s publication by Jiemian News, Iran’s National Security Council has begun reviewing a proposal aimed at making new arrangements and a legal framework for the strait. The relevant agenda items have been discussed and approved. After the National Security Council completes all reviews, the proposal will be submitted to the full parliament for deliberation.

In fact, seeking control of the Strait of Hormuz is also one of Donald Trump’s two major demands—he is a businessman-turned-politician. He even proposed that the U.S. collect the transit fees rather than Iran.

In remarks during a news conference last Sunday, Trump hinted that, given the U.S. has “already won the conflict,” consideration should be given to taking over Iran’s fee collection system for the strait. The maximum transit fee per ship can be as high as $2 million. If controlled by relevant parties, it could bring in revenues of several tens of billions of dollars each year.

After the ceasefire took effect on April 8, he wrote further on social media that the United States will help deal with shipping congestion in the strait, and enormous wealth will be created. The United States will ship all kinds of supplies and stay in Iran to ensure everything goes smoothly. He also claimed this will be the golden era of the Middle East.

For the shipping industry, once the conflict ends, the strait’s management solution could mean that it may no longer revert to “free and open sea lanes” guaranteed by international law, and it may also set a precedent for other disputed waters—including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait guarded by Yemen’s Houthi forces.

The Middle East situation appears to take a turn for the better, but long-term peace remains highly uncertain. Iran will hold a new round of talks with the U.S. in Islamabad, Pakistan, lasting two weeks, starting on the 10th.

The 10 clauses proposed by Iran also include accepting Iran’s uranium enrichment activities, paying compensation to Iran, and the U.S. withdrawing its combat forces from the Middle East. These points were decisively rejected earlier by the U.S. and Israel.

In addition, Iran’s top leadership still harbors complete distrust toward the U.S. because the lessons of the past remain fresh. On February 28, while U.S.-Iran nuclear talks were proceeding as scheduled, Israel and the U.S. unexpectedly joined forces to launch an attack on Iran. This, in turn, galvanized unity among Iran’s various factions.