#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Ceasefire is on hold again, these three points are really too strange, is the worst-case scenario approaching?

Currently, everyone wants to draw a line on the oil price K-line chart.
Although oil prices have somewhat retreated, both Brent crude and WTI are still above $95, with no complete reversal.
More expensive is the spot price.
The spot Brent (Dated Brent) price reached $141.37 per barrel on April 2, setting a record, and on April 7, after the US-Iran ceasefire, it rose again to $144.42, hitting a new all-time high, very embarrassing.
The spot Brent is the benchmark for spot crude oil pricing, reflecting the transaction costs of North Sea crude oil cargoes, meaning the actual oil price is much higher than the futures price.
Oil prices in the Eurasian market are even higher because sellers are also raising prices.
In March, during intense fighting, Gulf countries should have lost badly; in fact, small countries did lose, but some made huge profits.
Oil prices surged, with Iran’s oil revenue increasing by 37% year-on-year, Oman by 26%, and Saudi Arabia by 4.3%.
Iran and Oman control the Hormuz Strait, while Saudi Arabia reroutes oil through pipelines to the Red Sea.
In April, oil-producing countries also started raising prices significantly.
Saudi Arabia increased May oil prices for Asian customers by $19.5 per barrel over the benchmark; Iraq increased May prices for European customers by $20.45 per barrel over the benchmark.
And this benchmark is the spot Brent price, which, at the current $124, has increased by over 16%.
However, for Eurasian customers, there’s little they can do—"two harms, choose the lesser," if they want oil, they must accept higher prices.
Supply is the hard truth; cutting off supply would only make things worse.
Ceasefire cannot restart the 13 million barrels per day production capacity that has already been shut down.
Many oil-producing countries have said they can "quickly restore production," but the fastest this can happen is 3-4 months.
Moreover, the US-Iran ceasefire seems more like a false proposition.
On April 7, both the US and Iran celebrated their "great victory."
Under Pakistan’s mediation, the US and Iran reached a two-week "ceasefire agreement," with Iran celebrating that the US accepted Iran’s "ten conditions," and Trump confirming that "Iran will undergo a productive regime change."
As a result, the duration of the agreement seems to be measured in hours—on April 8, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again.
The ceasefire was just for show; attacks have not stopped, and the Gulf countries’ oil facilities are still being targeted, including Iran’s.
Iran said the responsibility for breaking the agreement lies with the US, and Iran’s ten conditions—three of which the US has violated.
Trump said that US ships, aircraft, personnel, equipment, and ammunition will remain around Iran until "the real agreement is fully implemented," otherwise, "firing" will be "bigger, better, and stronger."
Trump again issued a tough warning: "Our great military is loading and resting, actually looking forward to the next conquest."
So, what exactly was the agreement?
US media say there are ten points, each very shocking: US and Iran will not invade each other, Iran will control the Strait, wars including Hezbollah in Lebanon will end, the US will withdraw from the Gulf, Iran will be compensated, uranium enrichment will be accepted, primary and secondary sanctions will be lifted, the nuclear deal will be revoked, and UN Security Council resolutions will be rescinded.
Public opinion comments, "These conditions, even Li Hongzhang wouldn’t dare sign," and if Trump truly accepts them, he would be a confirmed "American traitor."
Trump angrily accused US media of spreading fake news "misleading the country," claiming he never agreed to these ten points.
But what he did agree to remains unclear—he didn’t say.
However, the strange ceasefire was still achieved, which is quite interesting—who deceived whom?
So, the question is: will the "peace talks" on April 10 still happen? Most likely, yes.
Although both sides are issuing tough words, and localized conflicts are occurring, the fighting has not escalated, indicating both sides do want to talk.
Pakistan is prepared for this, even Islamabad has taken a two-day holiday for it.
The US is led by Vice President Vance, and Iran will send a "high-level representative," the highest-level contact since 1979.
The probability of negotiations is high, but the hope of reaching an agreement is slim.
Every one of Iran’s conditions is like "dancing on a US minefield."
Iran wants nuclear weapons, but one of Trump’s bottom lines is "Iran will not have nuclear weapons."
The US aims to weaken Iran, while Iran wants to restore sovereignty and counter sanctions.
The core disagreements are too big and too sharp, and two weeks is simply not enough time to negotiate.
Now, it’s not about "whether they can reach an agreement," but "how long can they delay without fighting."
Ideally, a short-term consensus on the current situation might be reached, such as whether to extend the ceasefire or how to arrange shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Next, the cycle of "ceasefire-conflict-negotiation-ceasefire" may continue, with oil prices continuing to fluctuate but unlikely to return to the previous $60 range.
In the worst case, negotiations collapse, or the US might carry out another assassination or bomb an Iranian official.
Then, both sides’ tough words could turn into reality.
Oil prices would spike again, likely reaching new record highs.