These past few days, the news has been overwhelming, with reports of a US-Iran ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's intense strikes on Hezbollah, and Trump talking about joint management of the strait... The information explosion is intense. I'll briefly sort through it and share some of my own judgments.

1. The ceasefire is real, but extremely fragile
On Wednesday morning at 8 a.m., the US and Iran reached a 14-day temporary ceasefire, and Hormuz agreed to reopen. The global markets took a big breath of relief, and oil prices also fell. But before that breath was even taken, problems arose.
That same day, Israel launched its most intense airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, claiming to have killed relatives of Hezbollah leaders. Iran was furious, saying this was a breach of the agreement. The US shrugged: the Lebanon conflict has nothing to do with the ceasefire we signed.
See, this is the first deadlock: Israel is not at the negotiation table at all; it wants to continue fighting Hezbollah. And Hezbollah has been Iran’s beloved child for over forty years, with annual funding of over a billion dollars. You think Iran will just watch Israel beat Hezbollah to death and do nothing? Impossible. But if Iran acts, Hormuz will have to close again, and the ceasefire becomes worthless.
2. The terms of the agreement are all over the place; even whether talks happened is unclear
In Iran’s publicly released version, it includes clauses like retaining uranium enrichment, almost a victory for Iran. The US directly denies this, with Trump calling media reports “fake news,” saying the version he received from Iran is negotiable.
Most likely, Iran is playing a two-handed game: privately giving the US a negotiable version, while publicly promoting a “complete victory” version—stabilizing domestic morale. In plain terms, no one wants a fight, but no one can appear weak.
3. Did Hormuz actually open? It’s also a confusing issue
Iran claims it will retaliate and reopen the strait. But the White House directly pointed out: what they say publicly and what they communicate privately are different. We’ve observed that traffic has actually increased in recent days. The oil tanker “AUROURA” turned around and then returned; information is flying everywhere.
4. The most concerning thing is Trump’s “joint management” of the strait
Trump proposed US-Iran “joint management” of the Strait of Hormuz, essentially wanting a share of the tolls. Iran hasn’t responded yet, but if this really happens, it’s not good for us.
5. Don’t expect too much from the first round of talks in Islamabad on Sunday.