Gold prices plummeted in March, with institutions divided on future trends.

[Global Network Financial News] On March 31, gold prices edged higher, but spot gold has already fallen more than 11% this month. Shackleton Advisers investment manager Wayne Nutland told CNBC that the past four years have changed the logic of gold trading. Especially from 2025 to early 2026, gold prices surged significantly, far exceeding the increases suggested by historical trends.

“Bond yields and the dollar both rose, and in this context, gold showed its traditional inverse sensitivity to these indicators, hence the decline,” Wayne Nutland said. “By early 2026, gold prices are at high levels, and combined with investors possibly wanting to realize profits, this may have also intensified the downward trend.”

Netwealth Chief Investment Officer Iain Barnes said that in recent months, due to increased participation by financial investors, gold price volatility has risen to twice the historical level. Although the current macroeconomic and market environment differs from 2008, there are similarities: after shifts in the dollar fundamentals and market sentiment, overly crowded commodity positions by investors have significantly amplified price fluctuations.

Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a report that they remain constructive on gold, believing the market has re-priced the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path to either one or no rate cuts this year.

“But we still forecast that by the end of 2026, gold will reach $5,400 per ounce. As central banks continue diversification, current low speculative positions normalize, and the Fed is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points as economists predict,” Goldman Sachs analysts said. Under the baseline scenario, assuming the private sector does not further sell gold or add new positions.

However, UBS precious metals strategist Joni Teves recently warned that the gold rally is about to end. The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year, which means limited upside for gold prices. At the same time, Joni Teves stated that the gold cycle should roughly synchronize with the Fed cycle, so gold prices are expected to gradually decline by the end of this year, with prices falling in the coming years. (Wen Hui)