Upon waking up, the Iranian president is drawing candlestick charts together with Trump.

GateUser-bd883c58 · 2026-04-09T15:40:15+00:00

U.S. stocks rebounded sharply due to changes in Trump's and the Iranian president's attitudes toward war, and analysts believe the market may have bottomed out. Although short-term signals are optimistic, caution is still needed to observe external factors' impact. Buffett, on the other hand, advises continuing to monitor market changes.

GateUser-bd883c58

2026-04-09 15:40:15

Abstract generation in progress

Ask AI · Does the rebound in U.S. stocks indicate a return of risk appetite?

Two major news stories early in the morning:

On March 31, U.S. President Trump said that the war with Iran will not last too long. (Cailian Press)

On April 1, Iranian President Raisi stated that Iran is willing to end the war, but only if its demands are met, especially guarantees of no longer being attacked. (CCTV News)

For the first time, both sides showed TACO expectations, and U.S. stocks had a huge rebound, a strong positive candle:

Dow Jones 📈 +2.5%, S&P 500 📈 +2.9%, Nasdaq 📈 +3.8%, June crude oil futures plummeted: Brent $104, WTI $101

Looking back now, on March 30, Fundstrat’s head Tom Lee called for bottom-fishing in U.S. stocks, which was quite accurate. His reasons at the time were:

Goldman Sachs reported that hedge funds have been selling heavily, looking like capitulation selling, and this wave might be nearly over.
The AAII sentiment indicator, which shifted from bullish to bearish, reached -20, indicating retail investors are extremely pessimistic; plus, the VIX also surged above 30, all signals of a short-term bottom.
Earnings expectations: in the upcoming earnings season, profits should be more resilient than everyone thinks.
War and stock market bottoms: historical data shows that since 1900, every outbreak of war has seen the stock market bottom within the first 10% of the war’s duration. If this war lasts two years, the bottom was reached quite early.
Although tech stocks have been falling endlessly, valuations have already been significantly compressed. It’s a phase of shooting first and aiming later; bad news causes some to run away. But because everyone’s positions are already reduced, once there’s no worse news, the market could rebound V-shaped.

Interestingly, yesterday Buffett said that U.S. stocks haven’t fallen enough yet and he’s holding cash, waiting for a crash.

Personally, I think caution is still necessary. One reason is that Israel, a third party, hasn’t made a statement; another is that Iran’s parliament just decided to collect tolls; and more importantly, is what President Raisi said really weighty?

Anyway, today the big A-shares can finally breathe a sigh of relief.

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