Don't be misled by the bearish sentiment; a rebound is coming in the second quarter

$BTC
Yesterday, I closed all my short positions and opened long positions instead. Not because of any sudden news, purely because the cycle has reached its point.
Let me start with a very simple rule.
In the past five years, after Bitcoin's first quarter decline, the second quarter has always rebounded. In 2025, the first quarter fell 11.8%, and the second quarter rebounded 29.7%. In 2024, the first quarter rose, but the second quarter was sideways—an exception. Any year with a poor start, the second quarter has never disappointed. This year, the first quarter fell nearly 20%. Do you think the second quarter should rise or fall?
Next, let's talk about the rebound window within the bull-bear cycle.
This bear market started at the end of last year and has lasted about five months so far. Historically, mid-term rebounds during bear markets usually occur between the 5th and 7th months. We are right in this time window. It’s not that the bear market is over, but that the B-wave rebound within the bear market often exceeds most people's expectations. The kind of one-sided decline last year won't continue forever.
And there’s a seasonal pattern in capital flows.
Every year from April to May is when traditional institutions rebalance their portfolios and plan for the new fiscal year. Pensions, hedge funds, family offices—these funds, after planning at the start of the year, start to really enter the market in the second quarter. This isn’t some mystical phenomenon; it happens every year. In the first quarter, everyone is cautious and risk-averse; only in the second quarter does money start moving.
Looking at the chip structure, this position offers a very favorable risk-reward ratio for going long.
Between 65,000 and 70k, after nearly a month of consolidation, trading volume shrank to very low levels. The volume decline and sideways movement indicate that most sellers have already sold. Once the direction is set—whether up or down—there will be a significant move. Upward potential could reach 78,000 or even 80k, while downside support is around 65,000 with stop-loss. A risk-reward ratio of over 3:1—why not give it a try?
My approach:
Close all shorts and start buying around 70k. I’m not aiming for the absolute bottom, just close enough. First target is 78,000; once reached, I’ll exit—no greed.
It’s not that I don’t believe in a bear market; it’s still ongoing, and prices may fall further. But a bear market doesn’t fall every day; there will be rebounds in between. Right now is exactly this rebound window. After this wave of rebound completes, I will go back to short positions.
But for now, it’s time to go long. $BTC ‌#Gate广场四月发帖挑战