This time, things are worse. Not only is employment poor, but GDP growth has also slowed down.

First, as of April 4th, the number of Americans filing for initial unemployment benefits (219K) slightly above the forecast (210K) and the previous value (203K). Continued claims are slightly below expectations and the previous figure. Overall, there is no improvement in U.S. employment.
Second, the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 (annualized quarterly rate) is (0.5%), lower than the expected (0.7%), and below the previous (4.4%). GDP growth is nearly stagnant.
Third, in February, the U.S. core PCE price index month-over-month (was in line with expectations, equal to the previous )0.4%(; annual rate in line with expectations )3%(.
Fourth, in February, U.S. personal spending increased by 0.4% month-over-month ), exceeding the previous (0.3%) but below the forecast 0.4%. Personal income month-over-month was negative -0.1%.
Overall, CPI remains relatively high but not necessarily severely worsening; the specifics depend on tomorrow’s data. Employment seems worse, U.S. personal income has started to decline, and spending growth is below expectations. Although there was a government shutdown impact in Q4 2025, the Fed also cut interest rates three times, causing GDP growth to slow significantly, with 0.5% growth approaching stagnation.
Short-term data has little impact; the market is now more sensitive to geopolitical issues and oil prices. However, this set of data also hints at the potential for rate cuts after Wovalue’s appointment.