Economist: U.S. March CPI month-over-month may surge by 1%; the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year

MeNews · 2026-04-09T16:13:33+00:00

Economists forecast that the U.S. March CPI will increase by 1%, marking the largest single-month rise since 2022, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3%. The Iran war has led to higher gasoline prices, causing the inflation slowdown process to stall, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

MeNews

2026-04-09 16:13:33

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ME News Report, April 5 (UTC+8), economists say that the sudden increase in gasoline prices felt directly by American consumers will be fully reflected in the key inflation data to be released this week. It is expected that the US March CPI will increase by 1% month-on-month, the largest single-month increase since 2022; core CPI may rise by 0.3% month-on-month. Previously, Iran’s war pushed gasoline prices at US gas stations up by about $1 per gallon. The day before the CPI data is released, the Fed-preferred inflation indicator will provide information on pre-war price pressures. Economists expect the core PCE price index to rise by 0.4% for the third consecutive month in February, indicating that the process of inflation easing to more moderate levels has stalled even before the outbreak of conflict. Coupled with signs of stabilization in the US labor market, stubborn price pressures, and new inflation risks brought by the Middle East war, this helps explain why the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to cut interest rates this year. (Source: Jin10)

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