A rise in gold prices toward $4,800 makes the signal less clear

Although geopolitical tensions have eased, gold remains at the resistance level of $4,800 instead of declining.

This prompts a more cautious reading of events. Risk premiums are decreasing, but they haven't disappeared entirely. Investors are still not convinced that hostilities will end permanently.

Data and analysis indicate that gold price movements are linked to ongoing uncertainty about inflation and central bank policies. Therefore, even if oil prices decline, the market as a whole remains unstable.

For Bitcoin, this is important. During periods of geopolitical tension, the relationship between Bitcoin and safe-haven assets like gold has been unstable. Bitcoin shows some signs of decoupling, but not completely yet.

Gold may provide a clearer directional signal. If its price sharply surpasses $4,800, it indicates a tilt toward caution. If it fails to break through the resistance level, it is more likely to reinforce the possibility of prices rising toward risk, which favors Bitcoin.