Wine Price Insider April 7th Price Release, Wuliangye 1618 Slightly Drops by 1 Yuan

Sina Finance “Wine Price Insider” data collected over the past 24 hours shows that the retail prices of major Chinese liquor products continued to decline on April 7. If one bottle of each main product is sold as a package, the total price today is 9,938 yuan, down 23 yuan from yesterday, hitting a new low in nearly a week. The market overall weakened with more declines than rises, showing clear signs of short-term adjustment.

Today, nine out of eleven major liquor products in the market declined, one remained stable, and one rose. Among the increases, Qinghua Lang rose slightly by 3 yuan per bottle, reaching a one-month high. Among the declines, Yanghe Moutai Dream Blue M6+ led with a drop of 5 yuan per bottle, pressured by slowing terminal sales; boutique Moutai, Qinghua Fen 20, and Guojiao 1573 all fell by 4 yuan per bottle; Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye Puwu Baidai each dropped by 3 yuan per bottle; Wuliangye 1618, Xijiu Junpin, and Shuijing Jiannanchun all fell slightly by 1 yuan per bottle. Gujinggong Gu 20 remained unchanged in price month-over-month.

The “Wine Price Insider” daily data source is from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide, including but not limited to designated distributors of liquor companies, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The original sampling data reflect the actual transaction retail prices handled at each point over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide an objective, scientific, and fully traceable dataset on the market prices of well-known Chinese liquors. With the official iMoutai platform starting sales of Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle (raised to 1,539 yuan on March 31 early morning) and boutique Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9, the magnetic influence of these new channels on the retail prices of these two products is gradually becoming evident. The daily liquor prices published by “Wine Price Insider” follow a weighted calculation based on actual transaction volumes, incorporating quantifiable prices into the terminal retail price calculations for these two liquors.

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In important news for the Chinese liquor industry, on the 6th, the public account “Price Investment Deep Diver” published an article titled “Guizhou Moutai (600519) Eight-Dimensional In-Depth Analysis Report,” which states that Guizhou Moutai, based on a forecast net profit of 90 billion yuan in 2025, a long-term growth rate of 5%, and a 7% discount rate, estimates a reasonable market value of about 1.8 trillion to 2 trillion yuan, corresponding to a stock price of approximately 1,430 to 1,590 yuan, which aligns with the current stock price. If in 2026, driven by price increases and channel reforms, performance exceeds expectations, and using a P/E ratio of 25 to 27 times, the estimated stock price would be about 1,800 to 1,950 yuan, offering an upside potential of approximately 23% to 34% compared to the current price. The company’s current valuation is at a relatively low level historically, with a relatively sufficient safety margin.

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Editor: Li Ang