Dongxiwen | Li Cheng: America's "Three Wars" Are All Self-Inflicted; Playing with Fire in the Middle East Is Hard to Control the Chaos

China News Service Boao, March 25 — Title: America’s “Three Wars” Are All Self-Inflicted; Middle East Playing with Fire Is Hard to Control the Chaos

— Exclusive interview with Professor Li Cheng, Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong, Founding Director of the Center for Contemporary China and the World (CCCW), former Director of the John Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution

Author: Tao Siyue, Pang Wuji

During the Boao Asia Forum 2026 Annual Meeting, China News Service’s “East-West Questions” interviewed Li Cheng, Professor at the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong, Founding Director of the Center for Contemporary China and the World (CCCW), and former Director of the John Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. Li Cheng worked at a well-known U.S. think tank for 17 years and returned to Hong Kong three years ago. From his long-term close-up observation of the United States, he directly pointed out that the current situation the U.S. is in is not a war, but a quagmire of “three wars”: tariff war, U.S.-Israel-Iran war, and domestic cultural war.

Li Cheng. Photo by Dong Zeyu

Li Cheng. Photo by Dong Zeyu

Li Cheng believes that the U.S. military strikes on Iran are not accidental but the result of long-term strategic deficiencies and emotional decision-making. He pointed out that the U.S. has neither strategists nor the ability to control the situation. From the perspective of “global rebalancing,” he believes that the U.S. is experiencing structural decline, the cracks in the Europe-America alliance are deepening, NATO is facing severe shocks, and the global landscape is undergoing profound restructuring; meanwhile, China provides stability and certainty to the world.

Li Cheng quoted Churchill’s famous saying that before the U.S. does the right thing, it will try all the wrong and foolish things. He believes that the U.S. is currently in a huge dilemma, and all three wars are “self-inflicted.” This conflict may teach the U.S. to “do the right thing” through self-harm.

Video: Expert: The “Three Wars” the U.S. Is Fighting Are All Self-Inflicted Sources: China News Network

Below is a summary of the interview transcript:

China News Service Reporter: Recently, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran. How do you see this conflict developing, and how can the U.S. “exit with dignity”?

Li Cheng: We don’t know how long this war will last, but it’s clear that the U.S. is in a predicament, and the end of this war is beyond U.S. control. As of today, the war is actually escalating. There are many paradoxes with Trump; on one hand, he can be seen as very assertive, able to do whatever he wants, but in reality, he is also like a “lone wolf,” now looking for a “scapegoat” to bear the consequences.

The chaos caused by the U.S. will take a long time to end. When Trump believes that this situation affects the U.S. stock market or mid-term elections, he will spread some rhetoric saying the war is about to end or that the U.S. has already won completely. How credible these claims are is another matter. I think the outcome of the war is a lose-lose situation; the U.S. has fallen into a quagmire.

Video: Li Cheng: The Iran War Has Put the U.S. in a Dilemma, with Little Impact on China Source: China News Network

China News Service Reporter: The U.S. frequently ignores international law and launches targeted military actions. What are the deeper reasons behind this?

Li Cheng: I think the U.S. has lacked strategists in recent decades. The driving force behind U.S. decision-making is more driven by irrational emotions—worries and fears stemming from America’s decline. This is clearly reflected in the “three wars”: the tariff war, the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, and the domestic cultural war (, involving Harvard University and others ). These three may seem to align with American interests on the surface, but tariffs are just “glamorous words” in Trump’s “dictionary.”

Video: Li Cheng: The U.S. Has Lacked Strategists in Recent Decades, Driven by Irrational Emotions Source: China News Network

For example, Trump is obsessed with tariff wars, but tariffs are not a significant factor in trade growth and do not strongly drive economic development. In fact, this reflects America’s relative decline and its reaction of fear and confusion amid changing global economic conditions.

Regarding the Iran war, many criticisms of Trump initiating this conflict are circulating on overseas social media. We should see that negative propaganda against Iran and threats of force did not start with the Trump administration but much earlier. The U.S. forcibly labels its “adversaries,” such as Iran and Russia, as part of a “despotic camp,” which is actually creating “opposition groups.” Trump simply continued and implemented this confrontation and conflict.

The third issue is the cultural war between U.S. government and academic institutions like Harvard and Columbia. Trump criticizes scholars’ cooperation with China and refuses to see international issues from different perspectives. This reflects internal contradictions within American society. These “three wars” will not end or disappear immediately.

All three wars are acts of “self-harm” by the U.S. The role of Trump in these wars is superficial and exaggerated. All of these are detrimental to America’s long-term development because the deep-rooted problems within the U.S., such as income inequality, racial conflicts, partisan polarization, and financial bubbles, have not been addressed.

China News Service Reporter: You propose replacing the narrative of “East Rising, West Declining” with “Global Rebalancing.” Considering the current international situation, how do you see the evolution of the global landscape in the next 5 to 10 years, especially the future of China-U.S. relations?

Li Cheng: There is an counterintuitive view that the values of the U.S. and Europe are different. The U.S. neither has the willingness nor the ability to bear Europe’s “pain.” During the Ukraine crisis, the Trump administration was reluctant for the war to continue; when the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, NATO allies were unwilling to help the U.S. This has happened repeatedly, indicating profound changes in the global pattern. A friend from Germany told me, “NATO will face a huge impact, and NATO might end.” My view is that Europe and America will not always stay together just because of similar cultural traditions and ideologies; history has shown that many wars have occurred between European and American countries.

Having lived in the U.S. for 38 years, I returned to Hong Kong three years ago with firm confidence in China’s prospects. I believe that the tension between China and the U.S. is structural, not caused by any single leader. I don’t want to describe the relationship as a “game” because it’s not a “zero-sum game.” As for the idea that there is an “opportunity window” for the two sides, I remain cautious. It’s clear that China is aware of crises; whether in energy reserves or grain reserves, China is very cautious and leaves room for maneuver in advance. Because of preparedness, China has been less impacted by the Middle East geopolitical conflicts than expected.

Many of the actions by the U.S. have little impact on China. China maintains its stability, and this stability will also provide certainty to the world. After all, an unstable place will not attract investment; technological progress and economic growth depend on stability factors.

I want to quote two sayings to look to the future: First, “People tend to overpredict what they can do in a year, but underestimate what can be achieved in ten years”; second, “Americans will do the right thing only after trying all the wrong things.” I mentioned earlier that the U.S. has done some self-harming things, but I am confident that the U.S. will ultimately solve its problems. If China and the U.S. do not fall into conflict or crisis, I believe in ten years China’s economy will surpass the U.S., and America will better understand and accept China’s concept of peaceful win-win cooperation and the “Four Global Initiatives.” (End)