Why does Bitcoin's price still depend on oil, and not just on market sentiment?

The ceasefire changed the atmosphere, but it did not immediately restore trade flows to normal. Shipping, insurance, inventories, and infrastructure all require time to return to their usual state, and this is the obstacle to positive expectations. Market researchers and government energy forecasters still warn that fully reopening the strait could take months, even if open conflict diminishes. In other words, Bitcoin prices may experience temporary surges, but these gains could lose momentum if fuel prices remain high and inflation continues to keep central banks cautious.

The Strait of Hormuz saw an average of 20.9 million barrels per day during the first half of 2025, accounting for nearly 20% of global liquid petroleum consumption, as well as over 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade. When a waterway of this size is partially disrupted, the shock effects extend beyond crude oil traders to include shipping costs, factory inputs, airline fuel, and consumer prices. At that point, Bitcoin’s price shifts from being just a digital currency indicator to a measure of global liquidity pressure.