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News about a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran temporarily eased tensions in global financial markets. Investors got a brief respite from geopolitical pressure, which immediately showed up on the charts—both stock indices and cryptocurrencies demonstrated a moderate rebound. At the same time, the current rise looks mostly like a reaction to the news backdrop rather than the result of a fundamental strengthening in demand.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin jumped to the level of $72 858, with a significant portion of the move driven by the liquidation of short positions—only for BTC, their volume exceeded $218 million. At the same time, spot Bitcoin-ETF saw small capital outflows, indicating a cautious level of interest from some institutional investors.
The market is paying particular attention to the policy of the Federal Reserve. Due to geopolitical instability, the regulator may take a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, and even a scenario of a renewed rate hike after a prolonged period of rate cuts is not ruled out. Therefore, the Fed’s nearest statements and press conferences could become an important factor for investor sentiment.
As for the ceasefire itself, if no new escalations occur during these two weeks, markets may gain an opportunity to stabilize. In that case, Bitcoin has a chance to hold above $72 500, which would open up potential for a move toward the $79 000–$80 000 zone. However, even this scenario can currently be considered part of a corrective move.
For now, despite the short-term recovery, market pressure remains fairly strong. Any negative news or a breakdown of the ceasefire can quickly bring back volatility and trigger a new wave of declines. The current rise looks more like a reaction to a temporary bout of euphoria, and a full trend reversal is possible only if there is a confident breakout and consolidation above the $79 000–$80 000 zone. Until then, the market structure still shows signs of a downward trend.