Chang'an Futures Fan Lei: The conflict continues, and oil prices focus on three key factors

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As of now, the US-Iran conflict has been ongoing for six weeks. Before the Qingming holiday, U.S. President Trump publicly stated that if Iran does not agree to the deal in the future, the U.S. will intensify strikes on Iran’s energy facilities within the next two to three weeks. Subsequently, Iran increased its attacks on neighboring countries, continuously targeting U.S. military bases, Israeli military industrial facilities, and related energy and metal industry targets with missiles and drones. At the same time, on April 3rd, there were reports that after Iran attacked a U.S. military warehouse on Bubiyan Island in northern Kuwait, the U.S. conveyed messages to Iran through two friendly countries, proposing a 48-hour ceasefire, but Iran did not agree and instead responded with continued fierce attacks. Notably, April 6th marked a critical time point for the arrival of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit in the Persian Gulf region. Considering the U.S. proposed 48-hour ceasefire, the deployment of this military force may indicate that the U.S. could have more aggressive strike capabilities against Iran in the future. This factor might lead to a further escalation of Middle East regional conflicts in the near term.

Regarding geopolitical attributes, recent key points to watch include the following:

一、Potential escalation of the conflict. Considering the recent deployment of U.S. military forces mentioned above, this could lead to more intense friction between the U.S. and Iran, whether through Iran’s bombing of U.S.-Iranian military bases or the U.S. increasing strikes on Iran. Such actions could escalate the regional situation. Also noteworthy is that the U.S. previously stated it would intensify attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. If this occurs, it may mean Iran will retaliate by increasing attacks on energy facilities in neighboring countries. Damage to energy production facilities could cause a rapid global decline in energy capacity, further boosting oil prices.

二、The passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Besides the potential escalation of conflict, the specific passage status of the strait also requires attention. Iran previously announced it would fully block the strait, but recent reports suggest Iran may allow some oil tankers to pass, with the condition that Iran is compensated for war damages through transit tolls. It is currently unclear how other political entities besides Iraq will respond, but according to Iranian media reports, after obtaining Iran’s permission, 15 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours, which may indicate a short-term easing of passage restrictions. However, it is also important to note that, according to real-time AIS ship tracking data, there are currently 3,504 ships in the Oman Gulf and Persian Gulf regions. Even if some oil tankers are passing through, the overall number of ships停留在阿曼湾和波斯湾海域的船只高达3504艘，这意味着即便目前有油轮通过，对于整体的停运数量来说也是杯水车薪。同时，伊朗最高领袖外事顾问在5日公开表示，若“再犯错误”，伊朗主导的抵抗阵线将以封锁曼德海峡作为反制措施，这表明若曼德海峡进一步遭到封锁，可能会导致全球范围内的能源供给情况更难在短期内得到缓解，将同样助推油价上涨。

三、双方的谈判意愿。从冲突爆发至今来看，伊朗方面在多名政治和军事领导人遭到美以“斩首”以后，表现出的外交态度十分强硬。不论是在美国此前公开表示与伊朗达成有效谈判成果后公开证伪，还是本轮美国提出停火48小时后表示会用更为强烈的攻势来回应，伊朗方面的公开诉求始终没有与美国达成一致。这可能意味着美伊在近期能够真的坐在一张谈判桌上进行和谈的可能性相对较低，并且将会从军事摩擦的层面进一步拉远双方的谈判距离。

整体看来，近期原油的波动率水平虽然较冲突开始的一周时间略有下降，但整体的波动幅度并未明显放缓，同时油价的波动范围仍维持在高位。近期需要关注的要点整体都将以政治属性为核心驱动逻辑，这将导致商品属性与金融属性对油价的影响力度将进一步出现下滑。在政治属性方面，双方冲突的升级可能、海峡的通过情况以及双方的谈判意愿将是市场的核心关注点：若未来双方在外交层面做出让步或在军事摩擦层面出现降温，那么油价极有可能在短期内快速回吐溢价；但若未来双方继续保持当下的摩擦程度，甚至在外交手段失效后进一步出现冲突的升级可能，那么油价仍有可能再度刷新高度，而以上因素的关注节点可能都将聚焦于本周时间。基于此，近期对于能源品种的单边布局可能并不能取得有效的收益结果，而保护性策略以及基于高波动下的期权保护策略可能会取得更好的效果。仅供参考。

作者简介：

范磊，长安期货分析师，硕士，期货投资咨询证号：Z0021225，具有扎实的理论功底与国际视野；进入期货行业以来，一直致力于宏观及原油系能化板块与期权的研究分析工作，善于从基本面分析着手，结合政策导向理论搭建品种分析框架对行情做出研判，并坚持以专业的知识和诚挚的态度为客户创造价值。

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Editor: Li Tiemin