#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Goldman Sachs issues a major warning! Hormuz Strait closes again for another month, and Brent crude will break $100! The global economy is at risk

A ceasefire is merely a illusion; the strait is locked again, and oil prices are soaring.
Just now, Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs released the latest research report, issuing the most severe warning: if the Hormuz Strait remains closed for another month, the average annual price of Brent crude in 2026 will directly surpass $100 per barrel! This is not alarmist talk, but based on the harshest current geopolitical reality—this "world oil valve" is firmly choking the throat of the global economy.
1. Reality: The ceasefire is a false illusion, the strait is "dead"
On April 8, the US and Iran briefly paused fire, and the market once cheered, with Brent crude plunging 14% in a single day, falling below $90. But peace only lasted a few hours. Israel bombed Lebanon, Iran believed the agreement was torn up, and the Hormuz Strait was fully closed again.
Harsh data: - 25% of global shipping crude oil, 20 million barrels per day, now passing through - In the past 24 hours, no oil tankers have transited the strait - Brent spot price once surged to $124 per barrel, futures rebounded to a high of $98
2. Goldman Sachs’ three major scenario forecasts: where will oil prices go? Goldman Sachs has set three scripts, each affecting the global nerves:
1. Baseline scenario (optimistic): Strait gradually recovers starting this weekend, normalizes within 1 month → Q3: $82/barrel, Q4: $80/barrel
2. Adverse scenario (Goldman’s key warning): Strait remains closed for another month → prices in the second half of the year > $100/barrel, annual average exceeds $100
3. Extreme scenario (nightmare): Long-term blockade + capacity damage → Q3: $120/barrel, Q4: $115/barrel Goldman Sachs bluntly states: current oil price risks are significantly skewed upward!
3. Why is it so deadly? Three irreplaceable reasons
1. Supply gap cannot be filled: 10-16 million barrels of crude oil "disappear" daily due to the strait closure. Saudi Arabia and UAE pipelines can only divert about 10 million barrels/day, which is a drop in the bucket.
2. Inventory critical point reached: over 25 days of closure, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries’ reserves will be exhausted, forcing large-scale production cuts. Once cuts happen, the global supply chain will be directly "bleeding."
3. Asia’s most affected: China, Japan, South Korea, India rely on this route for over 80% of their oil imports. Oil prices breaking $100 will cause inflation, freight, and prices to rise across the board.
4. Chain reaction: the global economy will be dragged into the abyss
1. Inflation returns: oil prices surpass $100, global inflationary pressures surge, and central banks are forced to delay rate cuts.
2. Growth slashed: Goldman Sachs estimates that soaring oil prices will reduce global GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, significantly increasing recession risks.
3. Living costs soar: gasoline, diesel, chemicals, logistics, food... all prices will rise. From gas stations to supermarkets, everyone will pay the price for geopolitical conflicts.
5. Conclusion: $100 oil is not a question of if, but when. Every closure of the Hormuz Strait is a timed bomb detonating the global economy. Goldman Sachs’ warning is the ticking countdown.
$100 per barrel crude oil is on its way. Are you ready?