Nanhua Futures: Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon Increase Positions and Decline

Recently, the non-ferrous metals sector has been in a weekly correction cycle overall, with market volatility significantly increasing. Due to the sector’s interconnected effects, core related commodities in the new energy field, such as industrial silicon and polysilicon, have experienced fluctuations and declines. From a fundamental perspective, the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are relatively weak, with increased supply and high inventory levels suppressing prices, and downstream demand remaining insufficient. From the perspective of new energy and energy transition, soaring energy prices may lead to a continuous increase in the proportion of distributed power grids worldwide in the future. Photovoltaics, as a core supply pillar of distributed green power, along with wind power, will become the main drivers of incremental growth in distributed power grids. The global energy transition trend is irreversible; the construction of new power systems and the reform of electricity marketization are ongoing. Thanks to technological iteration and cost advantages per kilowatt-hour, photovoltaics stand out with strong scene adaptability and scalability, making it a core track in energy structure transformation. Currently, the industry is still at the bottom of this capacity cycle, and it is necessary to wait for capacity clearance and improvement in supply-demand patterns. During this bottoming phase, continuous monitoring of the industry’s “anti-involution” process and signals of marginal optimization in supply and demand structure are essential. (Nanhua Futures)