2026-04-10 03:30:30

Three Possible Outcomes (4.11–4.22)

1. Low Probability: Smooth Negotiations (≈10%)
- The U.S. pressures to pause Lebanon airstrikes
- Iran fully opens the Strait
- A framework agreement on nuclear issues, sanctions, and the Strait

- Ceasefire extended into early May
2. Moderate Probability: Talks while fighting, stalemate (≈50%)
- Lebanon: Israeli low-intensity airstrikes continue
- Iran: the Strait is half-open, Hezbollah launches sporadic counterattacks
- Negotiations: talks go nowhere, repeated bickering
- Ceasefire slightly extended (3–7 days)

3. High Probability: Breakup and escalation (≈40%)
- Israel refuses to stop the attacks on Lebanon; Iran withdraws from the negotiations
- Iran: closes the Strait, launches missile attacks on Israel, and provides support to the Houthis/Hezbollah
- Oil prices skyrocket, and a full-scale war breaks out across the Middle East
- After 4.22: The U.S. and Israel restart airstrikes on Iran
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