#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Goldman Sachs Issues a Major Warning! Hormuz Straits Closed Again for a Month, Brent Crude Will Break $100! The Global Economy Is at Risk

A ceasefire paper, merely a facade; Strait locked again, oil prices soaring.
Just now, Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs released the latest research report, issuing the most severe warning: if the Hormuz Strait remains closed for another month, the average annual price of Brent crude oil in 2026 will directly surpass $100 per barrel! This is not an alarmist statement, but based on the current harsh geopolitical reality—this "world oil valve" is firmly choking the throat of the global economy.

1. Reality: The ceasefire is an illusion, the strait is "dead"
On April 8, the US and Iran briefly paused fire, and the market once celebrated, with Brent crude plunging 14% in a single day, falling below $90. But peace lasted only a few hours. Israel bombed Lebanon, Iran believed the agreement was torn up, and the Hormuz Strait was fully closed again.
Harsh data: - 25% of global shipping crude oil, 20 million barrels per day, now pass through - In the past 24 hours, no oil tankers passed through the strait - Brent spot price once surged to $124/barrel, futures rebounded to a high of $98

2. Goldman Sachs’s three major scenarios: Where will oil prices go? Goldman Sachs has set three scripts, each affecting the global nerves:
1. Baseline scenario (optimistic): Strait gradually recovers starting this weekend, normalizes within a month → Q3: $82/barrel, Q4: $80/barrel
2. Unfavorable scenario (Goldman’s key warning): Strait closes again for 1 month → Second half of the year average > $100/barrel, full-year average breaks 100
3. Extreme scenario (nightmare): Long-term blockade + capacity damage → Q3: $120/barrel, Q4: $115/barrel Goldman Sachs bluntly states: current oil price risks are significantly skewed upward!

3. Why is this so deadly? 3 irreplaceable reasons
1. Supply gap cannot be filled: the strait closure causes 10–16 million barrels of crude oil to "disappear" daily. Saudi Arabia and UAE pipelines can only divert about 10 million barrels/day, which is a drop in the bucket.
2. Inventory critical point reached: over 25 days of closure, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries’ reserves will be exhausted, forcing large-scale production cuts. Once cut, the global supply chain will be directly "bleeding."
3. Asia’s most affected: China, Japan, South Korea, India rely on this route for over 80% of their oil imports. Oil prices breaking $100 will cause inflation, freight, and prices to rise across the board.

4. Chain reaction: the global economy will be dragged into an abyss
1. Inflation returns: oil prices breaking $100 will significantly increase global inflation pressure, forcing central banks to delay interest rate cuts.
2. Growth slashed: Goldman Sachs estimates that soaring oil prices will reduce global GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, greatly increasing recession risks.
3. Living costs soar: gasoline, diesel, chemicals, logistics, food... all prices will rise. From gas stations to supermarkets, everyone will pay for geopolitical conflicts.

5. Conclusion: $100 oil is not a question of if, but when. Every closure of the Hormuz Strait is a timed bomb detonating the global economy. Goldman Sachs’s warning is the ticking countdown.
Crude oil at $100 per barrel is on its way. Are you ready?