#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Rise before 20:30, suspected leak

——This is not an ordinary jump start, but a “jumping in the minefield,” is the market trading “news others know first”?

Asian stock markets continued their gains on Friday, potentially marking the first weekly increase since the Iran war.
Today's rally is extraordinary:
· First, today is “Friday,” and the rise suggests many are preparing to hold positions over the weekend — betting that talks between the US and Iran will yield good news (some agreement may be reached over the weekend).
· Second, the stock market rose amid rising oil prices, indicating that market logic is no longer solely about war.
· Third, the market is waiting for a real “big shock” — at 20:30 Beijing time, the US March CPI data will be released, with expectations of a 0.9% month-over-month increase (almost putting the market on fire), the largest rise since 2022. This is an asymmetric risk: if the data is below expectations, the market may not rise much. But if the data is flat or above expectations, the decline could be “fast and sharp.” This rebound is essentially a “rush to jump in,” but it’s very risky, a “dual-front battle.” On one hand, betting on a Middle East ceasefire; on the other, betting on inflation peaking. If one pillar collapses (e.g., Iran talks break down, or CPI exceeds expectations), those who bought today could be the first to fall.
But from another perspective, the market’s rebound under such pressure might suggest some are using confidential information for trading (or the market is starting to “believe in insider info”).
Recently, on the prediction platform Polymarket, some newly registered anonymous accounts have made multiple precisely timed bets on the Iran situation, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars.
It’s also important to note that if an agreement is reached over the weekend, the surge at the opening next Monday might actually be the peak of this rebound phase. Without signs of a trend-breaking decline in oil prices, relying solely on stock market rebound makes it hard to say the crisis is over.