Annual transactions reach 100 billion yuan, factory order schedules extend to 2030, and e-commerce platforms are "betting" on trendy toys.

A popular Labubu product once propelled Pop Mart to a peak market value of 450 billion yuan, but after the “super hit” cooled down, its market value was halved. Despite the market’s many challenges, how to make trendy toys the next “hot spot” track has become a common goal for industry practitioners to consider.

“Next, the industry will enter a period of rapid growth lasting about 5-10 years.” At the Taotian Toy Trendy Toy Industry Conference in 2026, Yuanjie (nickname), head of the toy and trendy toy industry at Taotian Group, said in an interview with media including Yicai that in the past year, core categories such as blind boxes, “Three Pits” (Hanfu, Lolita, JK uniforms), and the doll circle on Taobao Tmall grew by over 50% year-on-year. By 2025, Taotian’s toy and trendy toy industry transaction volume had approached 100 billion yuan.

In March this year, Taotian separated trendy plush and building block toys from traditional major categories, upgrading them to primary categories. The reporter learned that currently, in the plush category on Taobao Tmall, transactions from users aged 18 to 29 account for over 45%. Additionally, users aged 30 to 39 are also a major consumer group for personal toys, with the consumption of these two groups accounting for nearly 70% of demand in the plush market.

The price range of plush toys is also rapidly rising. Yuanjie mentioned that, along with the popularity of brands like Pop Mart, many quality plush products have now reached prices of 90 or 100 yuan, whereas five years ago, the core price range for plush toys was only 19.9 yuan.

The “2026 China Toy and Infant Products Industry Development White Paper” released by the China Toy and Baby Products Association shows that in 2025, the retail sales of toys (excluding trendy toys) in the domestic market reached 103.53 billion yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year; retail sales of trendy and collectible toys reached 67.69 billion yuan, a 45.4% increase. Through the fast lane of IP licensing and centralized upgrades in the supply chain, many domestic toys have achieved rapid breakout and quality improvement in recent years, with trendy toys becoming a fast-growing subcategory.

E-commerce platforms sensing opportunities are increasing their bets on trendy toys.

Yuanjie revealed that ten years ago, trendy toys only accounted for about one-tenth of the toy market and received little attention from management. But by the end of last year, from a payment perspective, trendy toys and toys had already reached a 1:1 trend. Data shows that in 2025, nearly 100 million new users will have joined the Taobao Tmall toy and trendy toy industry, with over 10 million young users under 24.

The accelerated integration of trendy toys with entertainment, gaming, competitions, and other industries is a general trend. Data shows that last year, blind boxes, gaming e-sports physical peripherals, and derivative peripherals were the top three subcategories in Taotian’s trendy toy volume. The entire industry is showing a trend of cross-border entertainment, from core secondary dimensions to pan-2D and interest circle layers.

However, under continuous growth, trendy toys face significant pressure to “expand the circle.” Taotian Group’s trendy toy industry leader Cuicheng (nickname) predicted that after several years of rapid growth, the growth rate of derivative peripheral trendy toys will slow down. This year’s incremental growth is expected to be less than last year, while supply of blind boxes, gaming peripherals, and star-related blind boxes is rapidly increasing and is expected to continue high growth.

Moreover, a toy product’s lifecycle from birth to clearance usually lasts about nine months. Whether for brands or the industry, there is always anxiety over explosive hits and high-quality supply.

“Supply of trendy toys has always been scarce. Once Pop Mart needs to rush orders, it will gobble up all the figurine supplies,” Cuicheng said. Although the industrial equipment of factories in the entire trendy toy industry is increasing, most factories outside the top-tier and mid-tier have not upgraded their supply chains. Due to the high requirements for mold opening, design, and coloring in trendy toys, some leading factories’ order schedules are booked until 2030, while many factories still lack the craftsmanship needed for trendy toys.

In this track full of novelty and new imagination, “digging for gold” opportunities are accelerating, but the industry still needs to remain cautiously optimistic.

(This article is from Yicai)