So far, the stock market trend and the expectations over the past few months remain consistent; the several bottom-fishing attempts in late March now appear to be near the lowest points. The bottom points for the major A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold were all on March 23, with the U.S. stock market lagging by one week. Currently, positions in multiple markets are at levels ranging from 7 to 9.

Major macroeconomic bearish factors over the past month:
1: The impact of war, including oil inflation issues (which have begun to weaken but are not fully resolved yet)
2: Doubts about high investment returns in AI (waiting for the earnings reports of these companies in mid to late April)
3: Risks in European and American private credit (still fermenting, potentially extending outward and affecting liquidity)

At least two of these risks are close to being resolved; only then can the market confirm a return to a bull market, especially the second point, which is a key indicator of whether the AI narrative will continue. So, although the prediction and bottom-fishing were successful, it can only be considered a temporary success. More time is needed to verify whether the fundamentals are safe.

Due to macroeconomic strength, cryptocurrencies are temporarily unable to fall further; how high they can rebound is also uncertain. I hold spot holdings, but less than half.