The Middle East powder keg is on the verge of explosion, and the red plate of non-ferrous metals cannot hide underlying concerns at the start! Changjiang No. 1 copper rises by 510 yuan/ton!

Futures Morning Market Closing Quotes:

— April 7th Yangtze River Spot Price Movements:

1#铜价报96810元/吨，涨510元；升水为160元/吨，持平；A00铝锭报24480元/吨，跌30元；贴水报100元；0# Zinc at 23,560 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB; 1#锌报23460元/吨，涨10元；1# Lead ingots at 16,800 RMB/ton, unchanged; 1#镍报135350元/吨，跌400元；1# Tin at 362,250 RMB/ton, down 3,250 RMB;

Returning from the Qingming holiday, domestic investors face a smoky global market.

Today (April 7th) morning, non-ferrous metals collectively opened higher but showed divergent trends. On the macro front, the Middle East situation has reached a critical point, with Trump’s final ultimatum and Iran’s tough response casting a shadow of blockade over the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global energy and logistics arteries. Although U.S. stocks closed higher after the holiday, restoring market sentiment, under the shadow of “stagflation,” risk-averse sentiment remains strong.

Below is an in-depth analysis of today’s early trading for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin:

Copper: Macro “Stagflation” Clouds, Capital Flows Stir

Today, Shanghai copper opened with a volatile but slightly stronger trend, though upward pressure is evident.

The macro environment is the biggest variable. The U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data unexpectedly “surged,” with the input price index soaring to 70.7, a new high since October 2022. This indicates that inflation triggered by war is now biting back at the U.S. economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which caps copper prices.

However, on the fundamentals side, there is some warmth. Goldman Sachs slightly adjusted its forward target price but maintained an optimistic outlook. More notably, COMEX speculative funds, after 13 consecutive weeks of net selling, turned to net buying last week—an unusual reversal signaling sentiment shift. Domestically, social inventories have decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the “Silver April” peak season demand is materializing, with strong willingness to stockpile during dips in the power and home appliance sectors.

Trading suggestion: The macro downside and fundamental upside are fiercely competing. Focus on support levels, avoid blindly chasing highs, and beware of wide fluctuations caused by sudden geopolitical changes.

Aluminum: Geopolitical Conflict Hits Supply Chain, Bulls and Bears Tug at 24,700

Aluminum prices opened lower today with narrow fluctuations, trading near 24,735 RMB/ton, with market sentiment cautious.

The logic behind aluminum prices is straightforward—war. The Middle East is not only a powder keg but also an energy hub. Ongoing conflicts have pushed energy costs higher and directly damaged electrolytic aluminum capacity in the region. The expected global supply gap is the core driver supporting aluminum prices from falling sharply.

However, domestic inventory data are not encouraging. Social inventories have increased for 15 consecutive weeks, with visible stocks not yet peaking. Downstream buyers are less willing to replenish stocks at current high prices. Although leading processing companies have resumed operations to 65.2%, the demand recovery is insufficient to absorb the high inventory levels.

Trading suggestion: Aluminum prices are caught between “strong expectations” and “weak reality.” In the short term, watch for breakthroughs in the 24,200–25,200 RMB/ton range. If geopolitical tensions worsen further, aluminum prices may gain new upward momentum.

Zinc: Tightening Mine Supply Provides Confidence, Macro Pressure Limits Big Moves

Shanghai zinc shows relative resilience today, with a tug-of-war between gains and losses.

The fundamentals of zinc remain relatively firm among non-ferrous metals. Supply-side news is positive—import ore processing fees continue to decline, some mines have quoted negative prices, and import windows are closed, making supply tight in Q2. Although domestic smelters are still profitable and production is expected to rebound, raw material shortages will limit upside potential.

On the demand side, “Silver April” remains promising. Orders for galvanized square pipes and towers are strong, boosting structural component consumption. Despite slight declines in northern regions due to environmental restrictions and holidays, resumption expectations are clear. Continuous destocking in social inventories provides support at the bottom.

Trading suggestion: Zinc prices are currently anchored by macro fluctuations. With supply and demand both increasing but without major contradictions, expect wide-range oscillations in the near term. Focus on trading within the 23,200–23,800 RMB/ton range.

Lead: “Safe Haven” in Liquidity Abundance, Narrow Range Waiting for Direction

Compared to other commodities’ volatility, lead markets appear particularly “laid-back,” maintaining a narrow-range, slightly bullish pattern today.

The logic for lead is “stability.” On the macro side, the central bank’s 800 billion RMB reverse repurchase operations have eased liquidity, providing mild support for lead prices. On the supply-demand front, primary and recycled lead smelters are less active due to profit inversions, with significant supply contraction; downstream battery demand, though not explosive, remains steady.

This delicate balance between upstream and downstream results in limited price movement. The dollar’s downward pressure and cost support are both at play, compressing lead’s fluctuation space.

Trading suggestion: Lead prices lack clear short-term directional drivers. Maintain range-bound strategies, monitor industry chain cost support, and stay alert to short-term volatility caused by market sentiment shifts.

Nickel: Quota Cuts Trigger Supply Concerns, Cost-Driven Rebound

Nickel is one of today’s stronger performers early on, but macro pressures cause volatile swings.

Fundamentally, the key driver is a “black swan” on the supply side. Indonesia’s nickel ore mining quota will be cut by over 30% in 2026, coupled with Ramadan effects and maintenance of hydrometallurgical projects, sharply tightening global nickel supply expectations. Meanwhile, industry chain negative feedback is easing—stainless steel producers are accelerating inventory destocking, and high-nickel ternary batteries in the new energy sector are ramping up production, with active nickel sulfate transactions. Rising costs and demand recovery have solidified nickel’s bottom support.

On the macro front, a strong dollar exerts exchange rate pressure on nickel prices.

Trading suggestion: Under the dual influence of supply disruptions and cost support, nickel has room to rise but faces macro headwinds. Expect wide-range oscillations; consider buying on dips.

Tin: Peak Season Fails to Meet Expectations, Caution on “Bull Trap”

Tin saw a “rollercoaster” today, surging then quickly retreating.

Although a weaker dollar should theoretically support tin prices, the reality hit the bulls hard. Myanmar’s tin mine restart is delayed but happening; Indonesia’s quota increase is easing supply pressure. More critically, demand during the “Golden March and Silver April” peak season has fallen short of expectations—photovoltaic welding tapes and consumer electronics are only replenishing on demand, and incremental growth from AI computing power has not yet scaled.

Market activity is light, social inventories are slow to destock, and spot demand is weak. Funds took profits after the early surge, pushing tin prices lower.

Trading suggestion: Tin faces dual pressures from macro sentiment and loose fundamentals in the short term. It’s advisable to stay on the sidelines, watch for potential declines from high levels, and control positions carefully.

Summary

Today’s non-ferrous metals market essentially reflects a battle between “war premium” and “economic stagflation.” Middle Eastern conflicts boost safe-haven and cost factors, while U.S. inflation data restricts monetary easing space.

In trading, investors should remain cautious, closely monitor geopolitical developments, and avoid heavy positions before the situation clarifies.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available market information and industry data, for reference only, and does not constitute specific investment advice. Markets carry risks; invest cautiously.