So that ceasefire news gave bitcoin a quick bump, but I'm not convinced we're seeing real money flowing back in yet. The initial reaction was there - everyone got excited for a second - but the follow-through just isn't there. Feels more like a relief rally than actual conviction.

What's interesting is how sensitive bitcoin has been to geopolitical headlines lately. Every time there's a bit of good news, we get a quick spike, but it fades just as fast. The question now is whether this ceasefire actually changes the macro picture enough to bring back the appetite for risk assets, or if we're just seeing traders take quick profits.

I'm watching to see if this holds or if we slide back. The sentiment shifted for a moment, but animal spirits take more than a headline to truly return. Bitcoin needs something more structural to convince people this is a real bottom.