U.S. soybeans: acreage and stocks both increase year-over-year, bullish expectations on the demand side

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Expert Analysis by Zhuochuang Information on the Soybean Market: Wang Wenshen

Introduction: The quarterly reports on U.S. soybean planting area and stocks were released at the end of March. According to the data, the planting area is 84.7 million acres, up 4% year-on-year; total stocks are 2.1 billion bushels, up 11% year-on-year. However, compared to market expectations before the reports, the area data is below the expected 85.55 million acres, and the stock data is in line with expectations. Overall, the supply pressure on U.S. soybeans has eased somewhat, but the potential increase in demand needs to be confirmed and realized in May. Zhuochuang Information forecasts that U.S. soybean futures prices will fluctuate higher in April, with May contracts possibly rising to 1200 cents per bushel.

Quarterly U.S. Soybean Data Shows Year-on-Year Growth; Area Data Below Expectations

According to USDA data, the U.S. soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 84.7 million acres, a 4% increase year-on-year, but below the market expectation of 85.55 million acres. In contrast, U.S. corn planting area in 2026 is projected at 95.3 million acres, a 3% decrease year-on-year. Due to rising costs of fertilizers and other inputs, many market participants expected corn-growing regions to switch to soybean cultivation, but in reality, the major Midwest producing areas did not undergo large-scale planting adjustments. Specifically, out of 29 soybean-growing states, 20 states are expected to see soybean planting areas increase or remain unchanged. This has a generally bullish impact on U.S. soybean prices.

Regarding stocks, as of March 1, 2026, total soybean stocks in the U.S. were 2.1 billion bushels, up 10% year-on-year. Farm stocks are estimated at 900 million bushels, up 3%; off-farm stocks are 1.2 billion bushels, up 16%. Soybean consumption from December 2025 to February 2026 was 1.18 billion bushels, down 1% year-on-year. Historically, the data for this period in 2026 is among the highest in the past five years, indicating a bearish influence of stocks on prices. However, since the report data is largely in line with market expectations, the negative impact has already been priced in, limiting its effect on U.S. soybean prices.

In summary, the area data below expectations is the main change in the quarterly report. After the report was released, U.S. soybean futures prices fluctuated higher, closing up 1.08% at 1172.25 cents per bushel on the same day.

Short-term Supply Side of U.S. Soybeans Confirmed; Market Uncertainty Focuses on Demand

With the release of the area and stock data, the supply outlook for U.S. soybeans in the second quarter is basically set. Therefore, future price uncertainty will mainly focus on demand. On the demand side, one factor is the implemented U.S. biodiesel blending policy, and the other is whether the U.S.-China summit in May can confirm a soybean purchase agreement. Regarding the biodiesel blending policy, the mandatory biofuel blending volume in 2026 is 26.81 billion Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), significantly increased from initial proposals. The biomass diesel quota equates to about 5.6 billion gallons of biofuel, a 67% increase from 2025. Under this policy, U.S. soybean oil industrial use in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 6.35 million tons, accounting for over half of domestic production. The increased industrial demand for soybeans is a key factor supporting higher soybean oil prices. On the other hand, whether the May U.S.-China summit can confirm a soybean purchase scale of 25 million tons is a critical variable for U.S. soybean demand in 2026/27. Overall, demand is currently bullish for prices.

In conclusion, after the release of the two quarterly reports, the U.S. soybean supply side is basically confirmed. The lower-than-expected area has a generally bullish effect on prices, but the impact is limited. Market focus will shift to demand fluctuations, especially U.S. domestic soybean consumption and China’s purchasing expectations. Overall, with increased certainty in biofuel growth, demand-side factors remain predominantly bullish. Zhuochuang Information forecasts that U.S. soybean futures prices will fluctuate higher in April, with May contracts possibly rising to 1200 cents per bushel.