The technical risk continues to accumulate, and gold prices may dip to $3,800? Here's how analysts explain it...

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Source: Cailian Press

After experiencing the largest single-month decline since the early 1980s, gold performed strongly at the start of the second quarter, returning above $4,700 per ounce. However, a market analyst’s latest warning suggests that this unprecedented correction is not over yet.

Senior technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader, Avi Gilburt, stated in a recent interview that he sees two very different technical outlooks that could ultimately push gold prices below $4,000 per ounce, even approaching $3,800.

As U.S. President Trump delivered a nationwide speech on Iran this morning, gold prices dipped in the short term and volatility increased. As of the time of writing, spot and futures gold prices hovered below $4,700, after previously approaching $4,800. According to Gilburt’s target prices, gold could fall more than 20% from current levels.

Gilburt said he is closely monitoring the current price movements and predicts two possible scenarios:

The first scenario is that the price encounters resistance near current levels and then continues to decline.

The second scenario is more dangerous. He said he will watch whether gold can break through the resistance at $4,800 per ounce. If it does, gold could rise to $5,200, triggering a downward trend he anticipates. “This path is more evil or deceptive because higher prices will make everyone believe the correction is over, but in fact, the correction is just beginning.”

Long-term Investment Value in Silver

Regarding silver, Gilburt’s view is similar to that of gold. As long as the price remains below the recent high in March, he sees downside risk for silver, potentially dropping to $53.50 per ounce.

However, for long-term investors, Gilburt believes silver still has significant investment value below $60, though he does not rule out the possibility of silver falling further to $40.

“For silver, from a long-term perspective — over the next 10 years — any price below $60 will be an excellent buying opportunity,” he said.

In addition to gold and silver, Gilburt also focuses on investment opportunities in mining stocks, believing they may outperform precious metals in the next rally. He pointed out that some mining stocks have already bottomed out and rebounded, while others are still in a correction phase, creating selective investment opportunities across the sector.

“There are many mining stocks that could outperform silver and gold,” he said.

Finally, Gilburt stated that from a broader commodities perspective, oil prices may rise in the short term, but he expects a significant decline later this year, possibly falling below $50.

Overall, Gilburt’s outlook remains driven more by technical structures than macroeconomic narratives, and he anticipates key turning points for gold, silver, stocks, and commodities in the coming months.

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Editor: Zhao Siyuan