What is the actual traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz? Analysts personally visited the site to "count ships," claiming that publicly available data underreports by half.

As the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains complex and unpredictable, an analyst personally visited the scene and conducted an on-the-ground investigation.

On April 6, Citrini Research, a U.S. research firm, released a sensational report in the financial world, stating that “Analyst 3” (internal code name “Agent 3”) concluded from his firsthand experience in the Strait of Hormuz that the situation there is not simply on a trajectory from escalation to closure. Instead, two paths are advancing simultaneously: one involving confirmed attacks and shipping disruptions, and the other involving proactive, toll-based selective passage and multilateral diplomatic efforts.

Citrini Research had previously published a market-shaking report in February, depicting scenarios where AI could severely disrupt the global economy. That report was highly controversial and labeled as “science fiction.” This investigation into the Strait of Hormuz, however, brought some unexpected conclusions.

“We initially thought this trip would only yield a vague conclusion like ‘the strait is open or closed,’ and we knew the investigation might be futile and fruitless. But in fact, we gained a more detailed and profound understanding of the current situation and the process of the world’s transition to multipolarity,” the report stated.

Iran Sets Up “Toll Stations”

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf, the Oman Gulf, and the open sea, serving as the world’s most critical chokepoint for energy transportation. Since the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict and the tense situation in the Strait, debates over whether the “world’s oil valve” will be shut down have never ceased.

On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, and ongoing hostilities caused the Strait of Hormuz to become “blocked,” triggering global energy shortages and sharp fluctuations in international energy markets. According to CCTV News, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of February 28 that all ships were prohibited from passing through the Strait.

“What if I go directly to the Strait of Hormuz?” Citrini Research reports that to understand the real situation, Analyst 3—who is proficient in four languages including Arabic—placed a Xiaomi phone (equipped with a 150x zoom Leica camera), a global maritime distress and safety beacon, $15,000 in cash, a gimbal, and a set of microphones into a Pelican protective case, and personally went to the edge of the strait to “count ships.”

This 18k-word report shows that the long-reliable AIS system (Automatic Identification System for ships) failed here. The analyst on-site found that the actual number of ships passing through the strait far exceeded publicly available data. His conclusion was that, under the current conflict environment, the AIS system underreports about half of the ships passing daily. This is because many ships, to avoid risks, turn off AIS signals or bypass “hidden corridors” not marked on public maps. Relying solely on AIS data, the market could severely misjudge the strait’s capacity, mistaking a “half-full” pipeline for “depleted.”

Analyst 3 discovered that the Strait of Hormuz is not a “deadlock,” but a “dynamic enforcement.” Contrary to the common market concern that “Iran will scorch the earth and blockade the strait,” the analyst found that Iran does not wish to close the strait. This is not chaos or war, but an organized control, which the report calls a “toll station” model.

The operational logic of this system is as follows: ships seeking passage (mainly oil tankers from Japan, France, Greece, and other non-hostile countries) must submit detailed information through specific intermediaries, including ownership, cargo, and crew details. After paying a substantial “toll and service fee,” ships receive an authorization code and may even be escorted through by Iran. Ships that do not comply face detention or waiting.

This model creates an unsettling “compromise”: the strait is not paralyzed but operates in a controlled, selective manner. Iran, through this approach, asserts sovereignty, gains much-needed cash flow, and avoids total loss of control. For most countries in the world, although paying protection fees for passage is unseemly, it has become a workable compromise for energy supply.

According to Xinhua News Agency, Aladin Burojedi, a member of Iran’s Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, told Iran’s Islamic Republic Broadcasting on March 30 that a new system for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would be implemented after passing through the Iranian parliament. Ships must be approved by Iran to pass, and Iran will ensure their safety and collect tolls.

Multiple Counterintuitive Conclusions

Based on these observations, Citrini Research has drawn several conclusions that are completely contrary to market intuition, with profound implications for the global economy and energy markets.

First, shipping volume may not decrease but actually increase. The report predicts that regardless of how the ground conflict escalates, the volume of shipping through the strait could gradually rise. This is because Iran needs to maintain the operation of this “toll station” to generate revenue and demonstrate management capability. There are even signs that, as the U.S. expands ground operations, as long as Iran’s control is not directly destroyed, this “controlled passage” mode will continue.

Second, super-large oil tankers are withdrawing, and smaller ships are becoming dominant. To adapt to this high-risk, highly controlled environment, shipping patterns are undergoing structural adjustments. Large ultra-large tankers are decreasing due to their size and low flexibility, replaced by liquefied petroleum gas carriers and convenient oil tankers. This means the efficiency of the global energy supply chain is declining, and transportation costs are rising.

“If our judgment that the volume of passage will continue to rise is wrong, and by mid to late April the volume does not keep increasing but instead reverts to a de facto closure, then global stock markets are likely to plunge sharply, with declines of about 15%-20%,” the report states. “Our current basic expectation is that, as conflicts escalate and ferment, stock markets will continue to experience intense volatility. However, market concerns over a global energy crisis will gradually be replaced by a more rational understanding—that the volume of passage will gradually recover. Energy prices will remain high but not reach catastrophic levels, and both phenomena will occur simultaneously.”

According to Xinhua, U.S. President Trump claimed on April 6 during a White House press conference that the tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz should be collected by the United States, not Iran.

When asked how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that reopening must be part of a resolution to end the conflict. “A deal I can accept must be reached, and one of its provisions is to ensure the free passage of oil and various supplies.”

According to Xinhua, the UK-based maritime analysis firm Winward stated on April 6 that the passage system in the Strait of Hormuz has shifted to a “dual-channel system,” consisting of a northern route controlled by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a southern new route along the Oman coast.

Reporter: Sun Mingwei