The US-Iran negotiations started today, but we only have 15 days left

If you think oil prices have already been outrageous by now, the next 15 days might make you question life.

I'm not trying to scare you.

Today, both Iran and the US sat down at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad. This is the first face-to-face meeting after 40 days of conflict.

But this negotiation may not be the beginning of peace.

It might be the start of a countdown.

Don’t get too optimistic yet, listen to what Iran has to say

Iran sent Speaker of the Parliament, Kalibaf, leading the team, with high standards.

But they started with two prerequisites:

1. Lebanon must cease fire

2. Frozen assets must be unfrozen

Otherwise?

“Destructive strikes.”

This is not diplomatic language; these are the exact words.

In plain language: If you don’t make concessions on Lebanon, I’ll let the entire Middle East keep burning.

And the red lines on the US side are very clear:

- Stop uranium enrichment, no negotiations

- The Strait of Hormuz must be open and safe

Do you see it?

The fundamental demands of both sides are simply not on the same wavelength.

The most difficult issue: mines are missing

You think the hardest part of negotiations is the nuclear issue?

No.

What’s really troubling both sides now is a very “low” but deadly problem—

Iran itself can’t find all the mines anymore.

You read that right.

The Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world’s oil passes through. Iran previously laid mines, now trying to clear them, but… the numbers don’t match.

The strait can’t return to normal traffic in the short term.

What does this mean?

Even if negotiations succeed today, the strait can’t open.

Oil tankers dare not go, insurance companies won’t cover, shipowners won’t take the orders.

Yesterday’s data: only 9 ships passed through the entire strait.

What’s the normal number? Dozens.

Oil prices are already crazy, CPI is also crazy

On the very day negotiations began, the US announced March CPI—

Monthly +0.9%, the largest increase since 2022.

Nearly three-quarters of it came from oil prices.

How much more expensive is a tank of gas compared to last month? Do the math yourself.

And the market’s original hope for rate cuts is now basically gone.

You think the Fed will save the market? No, the Fed will only say “inflation is not under control yet.”

This is the geopolitical impact on ordinary people’s wallets.

You’re not Middle Eastern, you don’t care who owns the strait.

But you need to refuel, you need to eat, your mortgage rates won’t go down just because you don’t want war.

Negotiations are just a “pause button,” not a “stop button”

Let me give you the conclusion directly:

In these 15 days, it’s highly unlikely that any results will come out.

Why?

Because Iran’s real leverage isn’t nuclear weapons, but the strait.

As long as the strait remains closed for a day, oil prices can’t come down, US inflation can’t be contained, and Trump can’t sleep well.

Why would Iran give up its only useful card?

And what about the US?

Trump has already said: “We will restore passage soon, regardless of Iran’s cooperation.”

How? Military means.

So you see, this 15-day window isn’t really a negotiation period, but a period for both sides to prepare for war.

If they succeed, it’s a pleasant surprise.

If they fail, it’s expected.

Special reminder for Bitcoin players (this is valuable)

I know many people care about the crypto market.

Over the past 40 days, Bitcoin’s performance has been interesting:

- Dropped to just over 60k during the initial conflict, panic selling

- Then quickly rebounded above 70k, reaching a high of 74k

- On the day ceasefire news came out, it surged 4-5% in one day

What does this mean?

The market has already regarded Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

Gold fell 11%-19% during this period, but Bitcoin remained steady.

But in the next 15 days, what you should watch isn’t the K-line, but the negotiation news.

- If negotiations fail and the strait remains blocked → risk aversion, Bitcoin may face pressure

- If unexpectedly negotiations succeed and the strait opens → risk appetite returns, Bitcoin could surge to 75k or even 80k

Don’t guess the direction, watch the news.

“Peace isn’t negotiated; it’s only achieved when fighting can’t go on.”

This time, both sides are still able to fight.

So don’t expect anything to be resolved in these 15 days.

All you can do is one thing: manage your positions well, don’t bet on the direction.

Because once the window closes, it’s not peace, but a bigger storm.

Do you think there will be fighting or not after 15 days?