Do you think the US-Iran negotiations will succeed?

I think everyone shouldn't be fooled by the ceasefire.
The shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has only recovered to about 5% of pre-war levels, and giants like COSCO Shipping have not yet resumed routes.
This ceasefire is more like a halftime break because the core demands of both sides have fundamental contradictions.
The US demands Iran completely denuclearize and unconditionally open the strait, while Iran has set up toll stations on the previously free and open Strait of Hormuz, and demands Bitcoin payments, trying to bypass the US dollar settlement system.
Iran wants to control the energy choke point to gain room for survival, and the US certainly won't sit idly by as its sovereignty is challenged.
The current $73k $BTC already includes the rigid buy orders brought by the toll station demand.
If negotiations break down around April 21 in two weeks, and the strait sees renewed conflict, Bitcoin might benefit from risk aversion sentiment.
But if negotiations unexpectedly succeed, which is relatively unlikely, the risk premium will quickly fall back.