The market once again raises expectations for oil prices, and WTI crude oil breaking above $115 per barrel has become a high-probability event.

MarsBitNews · 2026-04-13T00:40:29+00:00

Trump threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased market expectations for oil prices, with a 57% chance that WTI crude oil's closing price this month will exceed $115. The previous trading day, WTI crude oil closed at $95.74 per barrel.

MarsBitNews

2026-04-13 00:40:29

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According to PolyBeats monitoring, along with Trump’s threat that the U.S. Navy will block the Strait of Hormuz and intercept all ships paying tolls to Iran, market expectations for oil prices have risen again. On the prediction market Polymarket, the “WTI crude oil closing price on a single trading day this month” above $115 per barrel has become a high-probability event, with a current probability of 57%. The probability of exceeding $120 per barrel is 40%, exceeding $130 per barrel is 23%, and exceeding $150 per barrel is 8%.
Additionally, according to market data, WTI crude oil closed at $95.74 per barrel on the previous trading day.

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