April 13, 2026, the cryptocurrency market is at a crossroads of technical convergence and macro catalysts. BTC fluctuates narrowly around $71,000–73,000, with bullish momentum clearly waning; ETH remains consolidating between $2,000–2,300, under short-term pressure. Meanwhile, the US CLARITY Act officially enters a critical legislative window today, with macro regulatory uncertainty approaching a decisive moment.

Last week, boosted by easing US-Iran tensions and US March core CPI data below expectations (2.6%), Bitcoin briefly broke through the $73,000 threshold but failed to sustain the rally, indicating the breakout's validity still needs confirmation.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded from a high to the $58,000–60,000 zone, supported by buying interest, gradually forming an upward channel with higher lows. Currently, it is trading in the upper part of the channel, with the upper band at $74,500–77,000, and support at $60,000–62,000.
However, multiple indicators show bullish momentum is diminishing.
The current price pattern raises concerns of a double top, with the first attempt near $70,000 accompanied by high volume, and the second attempt showing significantly reduced volume, reflecting declining buying confidence;
BTC is above the 50-day moving average (around $69,505) but well below the 200-day moving average (around $89,298), indicating the long-term trend has not yet turned bullish;
MACD continues to expand below the zero line, with the fast and slow lines still in a death cross, maintaining bearish inertia;
RSI is around 46.9, in a neutral-weak zone, with no clear oversold rebound signals.

If BTC cannot volume-break through the $72,000–73,000 range, a break below the double top neckline at about $69,000 could trigger a rapid retracement to $66,000–68,000. Deeper long-term support lies at $56,000–60,000, viewed as a potential "compression accumulation zone."

Extreme market sentiment divergence is noteworthy—fear and greed index remains in the extreme fear zone (around 13–16), retail sentiment at historic lows, but institutional behavior is the opposite: in Q1 2026, corporate and institutional investors net accumulated 69,000 BTC, while retail net sold 62,000 BTC; in the first three days of April, BTC ETF net inflows exceeded $300 million, with total AUM surpassing $90 billion.

Resistance levels: 72,000–73,000 USD (break requires volume confirmation)
Second resistance: 74,500–77,000 USD (upper channel boundary)
Support: 69,000–70,000 USD (double top neckline / bullish-bearish line)
Deeper support: 66,000–68,000 USD (previous consolidation zone)
Long-term support: 56,000–60,000 USD (long-term trend line / compression zone)

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Ethereum is currently trading between $2,150–2,200, down about 3.19% intraday, after encountering resistance near $2,300 and pulling back. ETH, having ended its long-term downtrend from above $4,000 to around $1,700, is now consolidating between $2,000 and $2,300, forming a clear sideways range.

On the technical side, MACD histogram is shrinking, and the signal lines are converging, with upward momentum clearly slowing. The fast and slow lines are approaching a death cross above zero, indicating short-term bearish momentum is strengthening;
It is currently around the 20-day moving average (about $2,117) and the 50-day moving average (about $2,080), but still far below the 100-day (about $2,360) and 200-day (about $2,918) moving averages, suggesting a medium-term weak trend;
Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with the middle band around $2,210, upper band at about $2,329, and lower band at about $2,091, forming short-term resistance and support zones;
RSI is around 53.5, neutral-leaning bullish but with insufficient momentum.
Resistance levels: 2,295–2,320 USD (Bollinger upper band / previous high cluster)
Second resistance: 2,400 USD (next target after breakout)
Central support: 2,110–2,120 USD (Bollinger middle band / recent pivot)
Support: 2,000–2,050 USD (range lower boundary / psychological level)
Deeper support: 1,940 USD (Bollinger lower band)

Currently, ETH faces intense battle around 2,180, with the direction of breakout determining short-term trend. Holding above 2,150–2,180 could lead to testing 2,250–2,280; failure to hold may accelerate decline toward the 2,000 USD level.

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On April 13, the US Senate reconvened, marking the entry of the CLARITY Act into the final legislative sprint of 2026. If passed, it will explicitly classify BTC, ETH, and 14 other major assets as "commodities" under CFTC regulation, removing SEC jurisdiction entirely, and legalize ETH staking compliance. Polymarket’s probability of passage is forecasted at 63%–66%, with the Senate Banking Committee expected to enter the "markup" process between April 21–25.
This indicates a re-pricing of regulatory premiums, and the restructuring of industry rules will directly influence the positioning logic over the next 1–2 years.

The Federal Reserve’s federal funds rate remains at 3.50%–3.75%, holding steady for the second consecutive meeting. Despite March CPI rising to 3.3% YoY, core CPI was only 2.6%, below expectations. CME FedWatch shows a 98% probability of no rate change at the April FOMC, with the 2026 rate cut outlook essentially zero. The high-rate environment continues to suppress crypto valuations through discounting effects.
The US-Iran conditional ceasefire provides short-term relief, but energy price volatility (gasoline prices surged 21.2% in March) still warrants vigilance for inflation transmission.
Total crypto market cap rebounded to about $2.55 trillion. BTC’s market share rose to 57.23%, hitting a nearly 3-month high, showing a "BTC dominance + ETH phase catching up" pattern. Altcoin rotation remains pending until BTC stabilizes above $73,000.

Summary:

The market is at a critical juncture of "technical convergence + macro catalysts awaiting realization." In the short term, both BTC and ETH face diminishing bullish momentum, with technical pullback risks significant; however, institutional contrarian positioning, ETF inflows, and potential regulatory benefits from the CLARITY Act provide structural support over the medium term.

In the near term, key trading ranges are $69,000–73,000 for BTC and $2,150–2,300 for ETH. Over the coming weeks, the legislative progress of the CLARITY Act, US-Iran developments, and Fed rate paths will be the main variables driving market direction.