[Repost] This decline is most likely a trend reversal rather than a simple hourly-level corrective rally in a bullish phase.

First, it’s important to understand that it’s currently difficult to directly end the bear market cycle, whether from objective conditions, the extent of the decline, or the duration of the bear market—all are not yet satisfied. Even from a purely price action perspective, the conditions for confirming an effective bottom are not met, and this is crucial.

Therefore, even if there is room for further upward movement later, it won’t be significant. So, at the end of the larger cycle adjustment and at relatively high levels, we rarely take short-term long positions; instead, we focus more on trading opportunities during pullbacks.

There are only two expectations here: one is a direct shift to a bearish trend, and the other is a retest of the previous high before turning bearish. The specific path depends on whether today’s rapid decline can be quickly recovered in the short term. If not, the probability of continued bearish pressure is higher. Based on current performance, new highs are unlikely.

And spot prices are still far from our expected DCA zone, so there’s no need to worry too much about missing the opportunity.

Do you agree?