#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The collapse of US-Iran talks and its impact on the market

This weekend, representatives from the United States and Iran sat at the negotiation table in Islamabad. The result was that both sides returned home with sullen faces, no agreement signed, and plenty of tough words exchanged. US Vice President Vance said "no real negotiations," while the Iranian representative directly accused the US of "being too greedy."
Honestly, no one was surprised by this outcome. Even before negotiations began, the two leaders were already hyping their "victory" domestically, with conditions that were completely out of sync. From the very start, this negotiation resembled more a political spectacle for domestic and international audiences.
Interestingly, while the representatives were exchanging harsh words, another scene was unfolding over the Persian Gulf. A US warship attempted to approach the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian small boats immediately surrounded it. The two sides engaged in a standoff on the sea surface, and eventually, the US warship turned around and left.
The US claimed it was there to "mine-sweep," while Iran warned, "If you go any further, we will open fire." More dramatically, the Iranian negotiator immediately relayed a message through intermediaries: "If your ships don't withdraw within half an hour, we will act, and this negotiation is over!"
This incident reveals a key piece of information: the US is indeed at a loss over the Strait of Hormuz now. Iran doesn't need high-tech weapons; dropping some mines or flying a few drones, costing only tens of thousands of dollars, could scare insurance companies into refusing coverage, and ship owners into avoiding sailing through. The strait is nominally open, but in reality, it has been semi-paralyzed.
Interestingly, for financial markets, this breakdown in negotiations might not be a bad thing.
The Middle East is unlikely to see true peace in the short term. But now, the situation is shifting — after this round of confrontation, the "rules of the game" between the US and Iran are gradually becoming clearer.
What markets fear most isn't bad news itself, but the uncertainty of "what might happen." Previously, everyone worried about a potential full-scale conflict that could blow up oil fields, pipelines, and ports. Now, a bottom line has been established: civilian energy infrastructure must not be targeted.
It's like two people fighting — they might have previously been ready to draw knives, but now they've agreed only to use fists. The fighting will continue, but the risk of fatalities has significantly decreased. For the markets, that's good news.
Looking at oil prices, this logic becomes clear. A few days ago, news of a possible ceasefire caused oil prices to plummet 20% in a single day, from over $110 per barrel to around $95.
Why such a sharp drop? Because much of the previous rise was driven by "panic premiums" — fears that the Strait might be blocked long-term, with traders pricing in the worst-case scenario in advance. Now, they see that "the worst is just this," and the extra "shock premium" naturally comes out.
Some say Trump is playing a big chess game, deliberately dragging Iran to weaken Middle Eastern oil producers so the US can dominate the market. That idea is a bit naive.
The US's top priorities now are: first, maintaining a lead in the AI race; second, lowering high interest rates to ease debt burdens. Engaging in a prolonged standoff with Iran hampers global inflation control — the Federal Reserve wouldn't dare cut rates, and US corporate financing costs remain high. Isn't that digging a hole for itself?
More critically, America's influence in the Middle East is waning. Previously, Gulf countries thought paying protection fees was worthwhile, but now they see the US can't even manage a strait, and are likely to have doubts. After this incident, the proportion of Middle Eastern oil sold to China and settled in RMB has risen to 41%, while the dollar's share has fallen to 52%. Just a few years ago, the dollar still held over 90% dominance. The foundation of the "petrodollar" system is beginning to loosen.
Every great power has its cycle and makes strategic errors. The US has made many mistakes over the years, but its large size allowed it to withstand the turbulence. Now, however, it is accelerating downhill, shouting "from victory to victory," which only accelerates the depletion of its own reserves.
For investors, the future path is becoming clearer: the US-Iran game will continue, with a pattern of ongoing conflict and negotiation. Oil prices may fluctuate between $80 and $120, making it difficult to return to previous lows, but scenes of violent surges like before will become less frequent.
The world is transitioning from a unipolar era dominated by the US to a multipolar contest. The old order is loosening, and a new balance is forming. This process will involve chaos and uncertainty, but also new opportunities.