Saudi Arabia's crude oil "Great Migration" accelerates, Tengbuzhu pushes hard towards a daily 5 million barrels

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Source: Cailian Press

Saudi Arabia is increasing crude oil shipments from the port of Yanbu along the Red Sea to make up for supplies previously exported from the Persian Gulf — since late February, Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted the transportation of about 15 million barrels of crude oil daily from the Persian Gulf to global markets. This situation has driven up oil prices, caught refineries off guard, and caused critical fuel shortages.

Saudi Arabia is one of only two countries in the region capable of large-scale bypassing of the Strait of Hormuz to transport oil, becoming a vital “lifeline” for global supply. Currently, Saudi plans to increase crude oil exports from the Red Sea ports to 5 million barrels per day, a target within reach.

Its “East-West Pipeline” connects the Abqaiq processing center with Yanbu, with a nominal capacity of 7 million barrels per day. However, about 2 million barrels of this are used to supply refineries in Riyadh, Yanbu along the Red Sea coast, and Jizan near the Yemen border, as well as power generation and seawater desalination facilities.

According to vessel tracking data, over the five days ending Tuesday, the average crude oil export from Yanbu’s north and south terminals was 4.4 million barrels per day. As Saudi rapidly transports crude via this 746-mile pipeline to the Red Sea, Yanbu’s flow continues to increase.

In just over two weeks, Saudi has doubled Yanbu’s crude oil exports. However, even so, these diverted shipments can only make up about half of the losses from Persian Gulf exports this month. Even if the target is reached, Saudi’s crude exports will still be about 2 million barrels per day lower than pre-conflict levels.

Data estimates show that approximately 56 million barrels of Saudi crude are stranded on tankers in the Persian Gulf. Most of these cargos were loaded from late February to early March but cannot pass through the Strait of Hormuz into open sea.

Data also shows that at least 40 oil tankers are anchored near Yanbu waiting to load, most of which are Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), each with a capacity of about 2 million barrels.

Some tankers are en route to Saudi ports but have turned off their automatic positioning signals; they may only reappear in tracking systems after fully leaving the area, which could lead to an overestimation of export data.

Since the diversion began, most loaded tankers have headed toward Asia. Among them, Japanese clients can also receive supplies through storage facilities in Okinawa — Saudi Aramco has leased tanks there capable of storing 8.2 million barrels of crude.

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