#原油价格上涨 Crude Oil Market: Price Volatility and Structural Challenges Under Geopolitical Games

The current crude oil market is experiencing a dual test of geopolitical tensions and supply-demand battles. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, US-Iran negotiations have yet to reach consensus, and attacks on Saudi oil facilities have reduced daily output by 600k barrels, while navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed. These factors are driving wide fluctuations in oil prices. Last week, the Brent crude oil futures average price was $101.0 per barrel, down $9.3 from the previous week.

While supply is tightening, demand still faces uncertainties. US refinery utilization rate is at 92.0%, a slight decrease week-over-week; as the largest crude oil importer, China’s dependence on foreign sources exceeds 70%, posing energy security challenges. Although short-term geopolitical conflicts support oil prices, there remains a risk of oversupply throughout the year, as increased production from non-OPEC+ countries and renewable energy replacements will limit the upside potential of oil prices.

As the "blood" of the modern economy, crude oil price fluctuations impact the global economy through the supply chain. Investors need to closely monitor geopolitical developments and OPEC+ policy changes to grasp market trends.