Kishida now says he wants to block the strait, but it's more about emotional agitation and hasn't been truly implemented.

So you see, oil prices surged today, and the crypto prices dropped a little, but essentially there’s no real change, still staying within the range without breaking out.

And because of this, I think the space for this short position isn’t too exaggerated; just look at the 70200-69300 range.
After all, Iran has been playing the card of the strait for decades, and without any preventive measures, I think it’s unlikely.
The probability of Kishida actually locking down the strait right away isn’t very high.

So essentially, this is more like Kishida using the news to pressure Iran, a kind of game strategy.
Whether he will really take action later depends on how the situation develops.

Looking at it from another angle, does Kishida really want to maintain high oil prices long-term?
That would put a lot of pressure on his domestic economy.
If that’s the case, why is he still pushing for negotiations?
The logic makes sense—most likely, he will keep applying pressure until a critical point is reached, then shift to continue the TACO approach.

So my thinking remains unchanged: in the short term, continue to be bearish.
When Kishida’s words are less tough, then consider buying on dips.
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