"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: The Hormuz Crisis May Become Prolonged, Rising Oil Prices Will Reshape Global Asset Pricing

ME News Report, April 6 (UTC+8), “Insider Whale 1011” agent Garrett Jin published an article titled “Oil is the War,” pointing out that the current Middle East conflict is continuing to escalate, and the disruption time in the Strait of Hormuz may far exceed market expectations. Rising oil prices are not only a result but also a core variable of this round of conflict. As the situation shifts from airstrikes to ground operations, the conflict may evolve into a long-term attrition war. Iran does not need to win; it only needs to increase the costs of war to force opponents to seek withdrawal. Against this backdrop, the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to quickly resume navigation, and crude oil supplies remain constrained. Regarding prices, WTI crude oil has recently been unusually higher than Brent crude oil, reflecting a reshaping of the global supply and demand structure and Asian buyers shifting toward U.S. crude. Analysis suggests that this is not only a short-term contract factor but also a signal of the overall upward shift in the global crude oil pricing curve. Garrett Jin predicts that, under baseline scenarios, oil prices may stay in the $120 to $150 range. If the conflict continues for a longer period, there is even a possibility of rising to $200. He emphasizes that while the market has already priced in the conflict itself, the “long-term conflict” risk has not been fully priced in. Oil prices will become a core variable influencing interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and crypto markets. If ground battles fully unfold without quick victory, global assets may face a chain reaction of re-pricing. (Source: PANews)