#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

How much impact will the Federal Reserve holding steady in April have on the crypto market?
Currently, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April 2026 is 98.4% (data from CME FedWatch). Rate cut expectations have completely vanished, but the crypto market hasn’t fallen into panic selling; instead, it has entered a new phase dominated by institutions, on-chain differentiation, and sentiment restructuring. The market is accelerating its shift from a “macro policy response” to a “fundamental-based pricing” approach.
1. Price performance: Structural opportunities emerging amid volatility
‌Bitcoin‌: On April 15, the price traded in a range of $73,500–$74,600, with technicals showing a “wide-range box consolidation” pattern. The liquidation threshold for short positions reached 3.68 billion USD, with bullish and bearish forces highly balanced.
‌Ethereum has relative strength‌: The ETH/BTC exchange rate rose to 0.0313, the highest level in three months. This reflects capital rotating from Bitcoin to higher-activity ecosystems, with both on-chain transaction volume and stablecoin supply reaching historical highs.
‌Key signals‌: $77,000 is a long-term psychological resistance level; breaking above it will confirm the start of a new uptrend. Falling below $73,000 will trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, and short-term volatility will remain high.
2. Capital flows: Institutional capital flows in against the trend; ETFs become the “ballast”
In March, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a monthly net inflow of $1.6 billion, but since April, daily net inflows have dropped to below $50 million. In some trading days, there have even been slight net outflows. Institutional investors are beginning to adjust their strategies, shifting some funds from crypto assets to fixed-income products such as short-term government bonds to lock in the currently higher risk-free yields.
3. On-chain behavior: Whales awaken, chips rebalanced‌
‌Whale activity after a decade-long dormancy‌: On April 1, several Bitcoin addresses dormant for over ten years transferred 600 BTC in one go (about $40 million), marking the largest activation event of “ancient chips” in nearly five years.
‌Potential motivations‌:
‌High-level distribution‌: Locking in profits during the period when market sentiment recovers;
‌Wallet restructuring‌: Preparing for compliant custody or institutional integration;
‌Hedging and positioning‌: Providing collateral for future derivatives positions.
‌Market impact‌: This behavior has intensified expectations for short-term volatility, but it hasn’t caused systemic selling pressure. It indicates that market absorption capacity has increased, and that “whale behavior” is shifting from a panic signal to a structural signal.
4. Long-term impact: The “de-macroization” process of cryptocurrencies accelerates‌
‌Policy decoupling‌: After the ETF approval in 2024, Bitcoin’s negative correlation with the global easing index strengthened by three times, indicating that its pricing logic has shifted from “liquidity-driven” to “asset scarcity + institutional allocation demand.”
‌Regulatory coordination‌: While the U.S. CLARITY Act has been delayed, the CFTC’s recognition of BTC/ETH’s commodity attributes has become a consensus, clearing legal obstacles for institutional participation.
‌Future paths‌:
‌Short term (1–3 months)‌: Maintain consolidation and wait for May’s CPI and PCE data to verify the inflation trend;
‌Mid term (6–12 months)‌: If inflation continues to fall, rate cut expectations in June will reignite, triggering a new round of upward movement;
‌Long term‌: Crypto assets are becoming an independent category in global asset allocation and no longer depend on traditional monetary policy cycle.