4.16 Afternoon BTC Outlook: The downtrend remains unchanged! The daytime session consolidates and builds strength through a range, and during the US session the price spikes up then falls back— the bearish setup on the chart is clear

As shown in the figure, BTC’s daily chart maintains a long-term downward channel structure. Since the pullback from the high at 126000, the rebound swing highs have been stepping down one by one. The upside is always under pressure from the upper boundary of the channel, which serves as strong resistance. The main bearish trend has not changed.

The short-term trend is simply a sideways range-bound consolidation during the daytime, with volatility contracting and lacking direction. During the US session, there is first a volume expansion and an upswing to lure a breakout; once it reaches the channel pressure, it quickly falls back and moves lower. This fully matches the technical logic of rebounding within the downward channel, facing resistance, and then dropping.

In the next phase, the probability of continuing to spike up then fall back is extremely high. The first priority below is to test the 59902 support level at the prior low. Overall, you can stick to a bearish directional mindset.

BTC is hovering near 75600, and in the short term look toward 73800; for the swing trade, look toward the previous low of 60000!
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