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CITIC Securities: Overseas interest rate cuts + improved domestic financing continue to favor the full recovery of demand across the pharmaceutical industry chain
A CITIC Securities research report states that amid the domestic innovative drug business development (BD) boom, downstream demand has rebounded. In companies’ funding sources, the proportion of equity financing has fallen sharply, while the share of BD transactions has increased to nearly 40%. In 2026 Q1, the total outbound BD deal volume exceeded $60 billion—nearly half of 2025 for the full year.
By segment, the share of small-molecule CDMO is increasing thanks to China’s global supply-chain advantages. Coupled with stable domestic supply amid the Middle East conflict, it may see more orders. Preclinical and clinical CROs are expected to experience simultaneous growth in both volume and pricing as financing improves and demand for early-stage research is passed through.
Although the research services and upstream segment may see short-term performance impacts in Q4 2025 due to exchange-rate fluctuations, expectations for early-stage research demand in 2026 remain ongoing and positive. For leading companies, revenue growth of more than 20% is expected, and current valuations are reasonable.
Recommendations: ① CXO leading companies; ② key companies in the preclinical and clinical CRO segment; ③ research services and upstream areas with relatively reasonable valuations.