The closer to a ceasefire, the more cautious you need to be

This statement sounds counterintuitive, but the market is inherently human.
When everyone is discussing "ceasefire," what does it mean?
👉 Expectations are already aligned
And the market hates the most is consensus expectations.
Getting back to the core question:
① Will there be a compromise?
Yes, but not a complete one.
→ Symbolic concessions + technical ambiguity
② How will the market move?
→ The probability of positive news realization > continuous surge
Because the rise depends on expectations, not outcomes.
③ How to allocate?
Here's a "counterintuitive combination":
* A little gold (buy when others don't care)
* A little energy (hold when others think it's expensive)
* A little cash (have bullets when others are fully invested)
Plus a core principle:
👉 Don't add positions when news is at its most optimistic
One last reminder:
The market doesn't die from bad news, but from "no better good news." #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈