The current market greed and fear index shows a sharp decline, all the way big dump to 21, after half a year, it has returned to the 'extreme fear' zone. Looking back at historical data, in 2022 and August 2023, when the market greed and fear index showed similar signals, excellent catch the bottom opportunities followed. In terms of trend, the worst case also achieved Rebound and returned to the previous high, and even broke the previous high in some periods, creating new highs. Equally worth following is that the index also performed well in warning market tops. Although it cannot be guaranteed that the current market situation is completely consistent with historical situations and achieves 100% accurate predictions, from a probabilistic perspective, the current market is highly likely to be close to a cyclical bottom. However, it needs to be clear that the subsequent Rebound market is unlikely to present a linear pump, and is more likely to accumulate upward momentum in the form of repeated Whipsaw oscillations before opening the main uptrend.

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From the current market structure analysis, Bitcoin is showing a sideways shock pattern in the short term, and the price has successfully stabilized near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. From the perspective of short-term trends, it is gradually regaining lost ground in the form of small positive lines, steadily moving upwards. Although there have been pullbacks, there is no trend of continuous decline, and the overall situation still maintains within the range of shock and upward movement. Currently, the most crucial and recent pressure range is concentrated between 89500-90000. If the price of Bitcoin can successfully break through this pressure range in the next two days, then the subsequent market is expected to continue in a positive trend. On the contrary, if there is no rise but a fall, and the price directly falls below 87200, it is highly likely to trigger a new round of testing the bottom. At that time, it is not ruled out that the price may directly fall below 86000, or even approach 83500. From the perspective of market sentiment analysis, the confidence of the main force in Bitcoin is slightly cautious. In the absence of significant positive news stimulation in the evening, the buying power of the market is relatively weak, which may make it difficult to support a continuous rise in price. Therefore, in the evening, it is important to focus on the testing and breakthrough of key support and resistance levels.
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In the current bullish market environment, altcoins have fallen into the embarrassing situation of big dump over 90%. The reasons mainly include the following two aspects. Firstly, the problem of market capital shortage is highlighted. Due to the lack of continuous inflow of new funds, the entire market is like stagnant water, lacking vitality. At the same time, the explosive growth of cryptocurrencies has led to an overwhelming number of over 30 million types, making it impossible for the market to effectively digest such a huge quantity of currencies in the short term. Looking back at the bull market in 2021, although the variety of cryptocurrencies was also increasing, the market had ample liquidity, and various hotspots could be traded in turn, leading to high market activity. However, as we enter 2024, the uncontrolled growth in the number of currencies and the difficulty in concentrating funds have exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Secondly, the market lacks new hotspots and the pursuit of retail investors. In this round of the bull market, there has not been a new hotspot with strong appeal as before, leading to a significant decrease in the speculative enthusiasm of retail investors. In the past, the pump in altcoin prices often relied on the influx of a large number of retail investors. But now, institutional investors mainly focus on BTC, and as the market develops, the channels for retail investors to invest in BTC have become more convenient, making them less enthusiastic about investing in altcoins as before. Consequently, altcoins face a situation where no one is willing to take over, and market makers naturally lose the motivation to speculate. Therefore, for investors, the key to profiting from investing in altcoins lies in accurately seizing the buying opportunity. Only by buying at low prices can they take the initiative in subsequent market f