On February 25, analysts stated that the worst phase of Bitcoin's 50% retracement may be over, and the hash band indicator signals that the three-month miner capitulation and selling period is about to end. Bitcoin often bottoms out when miners face the greatest financial pressure. Capitulation occurs when mining revenue falls below operational costs, forcing less efficient miners to shut down machines and sell Bitcoin reserves to pay for electricity, debts, and operating expenses, which in turn leads to a decline in hash rate and sustained selling pressure in the market. When the 30-day moving average of hash rate crosses back above the 60-day moving average, it indicates that miners are coming back online and network stress is easing, and this moment is approaching.

Looking at history, there have been about 20 miner capitulation events since 2011, most of which coincide with local or major bottoms, including January 2015, December 2018, and December 2022. The hash rate is currently rebounding, and miner confidence is recovering in tandem. At the same time, Bitcoin's current trading price is more than $66,000 below its estimated average production cost, a level often considered a deep value zone. The last time this happened was in November 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed out at around $15,500. #比特币反弹 $BTC